| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire wins by over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chicago Fire wins by over 1.5 goals | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nashville wins by over 1.5 goals | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nashville wins by over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets traders speculate on the goal/point spread between Nashville and Chicago Fire, focusing on which side will win by how many goals. Spread markets matter because they capture market expectations about margin of victory, not just who wins.
Both teams are professional sides with evolving rosters, coaching decisions, and form that affect expected margins; recent results, injuries, and lineup choices often drive market moves. Historical head-to-heads and each club's offensive and defensive profiles provide context for likely spread outcomes.
Market prices aggregate participants' views about the likely margin between these teams; interpret changes as signals that new information (lineups, injuries, weather, etc.) has altered expectations. Always confirm the exact settlement criteria on the market page before trading.
Closure is set by the market host; many KALSHI sports spread markets close at or shortly before kickoff, but you should check the specific market page for the exact closing time.
The market divides possible spread results into four mutually exclusive outcomes (each representing a range of goal differentials); the market page lists the exact labels and the settlement rule for each outcome.
Monitor official starting lineups, injury and suspension updates, late travel or roster news, weather reports for the matchsite, and notable tactical or coaching announcements—these items commonly trigger price movement.
Settlement is based on the official match result relative to the spread ranges specified by each contract; KALSHI’s market page provides the precise settlement formula and data source used.
Home-field can shift expected margins through crowd influence, reduced travel fatigue, and familiarity with the pitch; evaluate each team’s historical home and away performance and any travel quirks for the specific match.