| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore -2.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Baltimore -1.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Minnesota -1.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Minnesota -2.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which side of the Minnesota vs Baltimore matchup will cover the spread over the first five innings; it matters for traders who want exposure to starting pitching and early-game offense rather than full-game outcomes.
The first-five-innings spread isolates the portion of the game most influenced by starting pitchers and lineup construction, reducing noise from late-inning bullpen usage and managerial strategy. Historical trends between these clubs may matter, but performance in the specific starting pitchers, recent lineups, and situational conditions for the scheduled game tend to drive the short-term market. The market has four discrete outcomes, each representing a different spread range for the first five innings.
Market prices reflect participants' aggregated expectations about the first five innings; higher prices indicate stronger market confidence in a given outcome. Watch price movement, liquidity, and news (starter announcements, weather, scratches) for real-time information about shifting expectations.
The market's close time is listed as TBD; on many platforms first-five-innings markets close at or just before first pitch so that starting lineup and weather information is reflected—confirm the official close time on the market page before trading.
Settlement is based on the official run differential after five completed innings (half of the fifth will not count); if the game is suspended, postponed, or official-score rules apply, the market will settle according to the platform's stated market rules—check KALSHI's settlement policy for specifics.
A late starter change can materially alter expectations because the market prices are sensitive to individual starter profiles; if the change occurs before market close you should expect price movement, and if after close it may lead to disputes or follow platform guidance on News and Settlement.
Ballpark dimensions, typical wind patterns, and temperature influence run scoring early in games—wind blowing out and warmer conditions tend to increase run expectation, while wind to the infield, cold, or heavy rain/snow reduce it; check local forecasts and stadium tendencies ahead of the game.
The four discrete outcomes correspond to different ranges by which one team covers or fails to cover the posted first-five-innings spread; settlement is determined by which range the actual five-inning run differential falls into, so review the market's outcome definitions before trading.