| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Zheng | 0% | 1¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Arthur Cazaux | 0% | 1¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which player will win the second set between Michael Zheng and Arthur Cazaux. Set-level markets matter because they capture short-term match dynamics that differ from full-match predictions.
Zheng and Cazaux are competing in a professional match where head-to-head history, playing style, and tournament context shape set-by-set play. Factors such as surface, recent form, and on-site conditions influence how each player approaches the second set and can change rapidly as the match unfolds.
Market odds are the aggregated expectations of traders about who will win set 2 and will move as new information arrives (scoreline, injuries, weather, etc.). They are a snapshot of market sentiment at a moment in time, not a guarantee of a result.
Settlement is based on the official tournament/scorekeeper record for the second set as recognized by KALSHI. The market will resolve after the outcome of set 2 is officially determined; check the event page for any posted close time or platform-specific rules.
If the match is not played through set 2 (for example due to a pre-match withdrawal), KALSHI will follow its market rules for walkovers and incomplete events; that can include voiding the market or following a specified settlement policy—consult the exchange's rules for the definitive procedure.
The market follows the official match score: if a player retires or is defaulted during set 2, the opponent is recorded as the set winner according to the tournament's official result, and the market will settle accordingly.
A tie-break determines the winner of the set when the set reaches the tie-break condition used by the tournament; the player who wins the tie-break is the official set winner and the market is settled on that result.
Key indicators include first-serve percentage, first-serve points won, break points saved and converted, return points won, unforced errors, and visible signs like movement and medical treatment. Changes in tactics and momentum after set 1 are also highly informative.