| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami wins the 1H by over 9.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Miami wins the 1H by over 6.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Miami wins the 1H by over 3.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Indiana wins the 1H by over 3.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Indiana wins the 1H by over 6.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Indiana wins the 1H by over 9.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Indiana wins the 1H by over 12.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Indiana wins the 1H by over 15.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Indiana wins the 1H by over 18.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Indiana wins the 1H by over 21.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the point differential between Miami and Indiana will fall at the end of the first half; it matters to traders who want exposure to early-game dynamics and to bettors focusing on starting lineups and coaching strategies.
First-half markets isolate the opening 24 minutes of play, when starting fives, initial matchups, and early coaching decisions drive outcomes. Team styles — such as defensive emphasis, tempo, and three-point usage — and recent lineup stability historically have larger short-term effects than cumulative season statistics.
Market prices represent collective expectations about the first-half margin and will move as new information arrives; they are a real-time consensus signal, not a guarantee of any single outcome.
Settlement is based on the official score at the end of the first half (halftime). The market uses the league's official game book to determine the point differential at that time.
Late lineup news typically causes rapid price movement as traders update expectations; the market outcome itself is still settled on the halftime score, so players ruled out change the likelihood of different first-half margins.
If trading remains open into game time, prices will react to live events, but resolution is always based on the halftime result. Your position is settled according to that official halftime score regardless of when events occurred.
Resolution in those situations follows the platform's official rules. Many platforms require the first half to be completed for settlement; if it is not, the market may be voided or resolved per KALSHI's event policies—check the platform's rules for specific procedures.
Multiple outcomes correspond to different first-half margin ranges, allowing finer-grained positions. Choose based on expected starting-matchup advantages, projected pace, recent lineup changes, and your risk tolerance; monitor pregame news and line movement for guidance.