| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Houston wins 1st half | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Miami wins 1st half | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which team—Miami, Houston, or neither—will be leading at the end of the first half of their matchup. It matters because first-half outcomes capture in-game dynamics and are useful for hedging or short-term trading strategies.
This event reflects a single-game, intra-game outcome rather than a full-game winner; first-half markets are influenced by starting lineups, game plan, and early-game tempo. Historical head-to-heads, recent team form, and situational context (home/away, travel, rest) provide background but each fixture can vary widely depending on final rosters and coaching decisions.
Market prices represent the aggregated expectations of participants and will change as new information arrives (injuries, lineup announcements, betting flows). Treat prices as a real-time signal about how the crowd is updating its view of which side will lead at halftime.
The three outcomes are: Miami leading at the end of the first half, Houston leading at the end of the first half, or the score being tied at the end of the first half.
The market close time is listed as TBD—check the platform for the official cut-off. Settlement will occur after the official first-half result is reported by the league and processed according to KALSHI's settlement rules.
The first half is defined by the sport's official rules (for example, the end of the second quarter in basketball or the halfway point in other sports). Any overtime or extra periods that occur after the first half do not affect the first-half result.
Those factors can materially shift market prices because they directly change the expected early-game performance. Missing a primary scorer or a key defensive piece often has an outsized impact on who is likely to lead at halftime.
Settlement in those cases follows KALSHI's event rules and the official league report; some markets may be voided if the first half is not completed, while others may wait for rescheduling. Consult the platform's official policy for the definitive outcome-handling procedure.