| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway to win in Round 5 | 8% | 7¢ | 8¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| Max Holloway to win in Round 3 | 9% | 8¢ | 9¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| Max Holloway to win in Round 4 | 9% | 8¢ | 9¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| Charles Oliveira to win in Round 5 | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Charles Oliveira to win in Round 4 | 4% | 2¢ | 4¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Charles Oliveira to win in Round 3 | 6% | 5¢ | 6¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Max Holloway to win in Round 2 | 11% | 10¢ | 11¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Max Holloway to win in Round 1 | 13% | 12¢ | 13¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Charles Oliveira to win in Round 2 | 9% | 8¢ | 9¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Charles Oliveira to win in Round 1 | 13% | 12¢ | 13¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which round Max Holloway or Charles Oliveira will record the victory in their fight. Round-specific markets matter because they break a fight into time segments and let traders express detailed views about how and when a result will occur.
Max Holloway is known for high-volume striking and pace-setting, while Charles Oliveira is a highly experienced finisher with elite submission skills and a history of late-game comebacks. Their contrasting styles and past finishing patterns create a wide range of plausible round outcomes that traders will price before and during the event.
Market prices reflect the aggregated expectations about which round will produce the finish or decision and will move as new information arrives (injuries, weigh-ins, fight-week news). Treat odds as a real-time signal of market sentiment, not a guaranteed prediction.
They typically correspond to each fighter winning in specific rounds (for example, rounds 1–5 for each fighter); consult the KALSHI market page for exact labeling of each outcome.
The event page lists the close time as TBD; in most cases a round-of-victory market closes at the official start of the fight or when the exchange announces closure, so monitor the KALSHI listing for the final close time.
Markets commonly attribute a stoppage between rounds to the round that just completed, but settlement practices vary by platform, so confirm KALSHI's official settlement rules for this event.
If a result is overturned to a no contest or voided by the commission, many exchanges refund or void affected contracts per their settlement policy; check KALSHI’s terms for how they handle post-event changes.
Key updates include weigh-in outcomes, late injury reports or withdrawals, announced corner strategies, footage from recent camps or tune-up fights, and any observable physical issues at the ceremonial weigh-ins or open workouts that suggest vulnerability in early or later rounds.