| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Fernandez to win in Round 3 | 0% | 4¢ | 29¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rodolfo Bellato to win in Round 1 | 0% | 5¢ | 23¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rodolfo Bellato to win in Round 2 | 0% | 4¢ | 28¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rodolfo Bellato to win in Round 3 | 0% | 2¢ | 28¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Luke Fernandez to win in Round 1 | 0% | 19¢ | 37¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Luke Fernandez to win in Round 2 | 0% | 5¢ | 48¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which round Luke Fernandez or Rodolfo Bellato will record a victory in their upcoming bout — a focused way to trade on how the fight ends rather than just who wins. Round-of-victory markets matter because they incorporate expectations about finishing ability, styles, and in-fight dynamics.
The market centers on a single scheduled matchup between Luke Fernandez and Rodolfo Bellato and offers six mutually exclusive outcomes tied to the round in which one fighter stops the other (or other specified round intervals). Traders should consider each fighter's recent activity, finishing history, and any publicly available pre-fight news such as injuries, weight-cut issues, or late changes that often shift expectations. Since the event source is KALSHI and the closing time is listed as TBD, public information and official bout confirmations will drive market movement as fight week approaches.
In this setting, market quotes represent the crowd's aggregated expectations about which round the fight will end and by which fighter; they update as new information arrives (e.g., injury reports, weigh-ins, corner changes). Use them as a real-time signal about how observers anticipate the fight will unfold, but always cross-check contract-specific settlement rules.
This market includes six discrete, mutually exclusive outcomes tied to which round (or round range) either Luke Fernandez or Rodolfo Bellato records a victory; consult the market contract page for the exact mapping of outcome labels to specific rounds or intervals.
Settlement follows the officially recorded method and round of stoppage from the event's recognized authority: the exact round of a KO/TKO/DQ is used to determine the winning outcome per the contract terms; check the market rules for how different stoppage types are handled.
If there is no stoppage and the fight goes to a decision, settlement depends on the market's contract language — some round-of-victory markets designate a specific 'decision/no stoppage' outcome or assign the final round outcome to winners by decision, so verify the contract to know which outcome wins in that scenario.
Yes — markets settle to the official result as recognized by the event's sanctioning body or the market operator's stated source; if a commission later overturns or amends the result, settlement will follow the final official ruling per platform policy.
Treatment of postponements, cancellations, or replacements is determined by the market's terms: common resolutions include suspension until a new date, voiding and refunding contracts, or settlement based on the revised matchup; consult the market rules and announcements from KALSHI for the specific outcome.