| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles C | 0% | 34¢ | 68¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Golden State | 0% | 28¢ | 59¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tie | 0% | 0¢ | 21¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which side — Los Angeles C, Golden State, or a tie — will win the second half of the named game. Second-half markets isolate coaching adjustments, bench performance, and matchup shifts that can differ from full-game results.
Second-half outcomes reflect what teams do after halftime: strategic adjustments, rotation changes, and situational play. Teams that start fast in the second half, exploit favorable matchups, or ride hot bench scoring often swing these markets; historical second-half performance and head-to-head tendencies can be informative. Because this market has three outcomes, it explicitly accounts for the possibility of a tied second half.
Market prices represent the collective market view about which of the three outcomes is likeliest and update in real time as new information arrives. Before trading, confirm the contract's settlement rules (for example, whether overtime counts) because settlement definitions determine which outcome wins.
A second-half win is typically defined by which team has more points scored during the league-defined second half of regulation (third and fourth quarters). Whether overtime is included and how ties are handled depends on the contract text, so check the market description for the official settlement rule.
The three outcomes correspond to Los Angeles C winning the second half, Golden State winning the second half, and a tie/push for the second half (both teams scoring the same number of second-half points). Confirm the exact labels in the market listing.
Second-half markets commonly lock when the second half begins or shortly beforehand, but timing can vary by platform and by market. Since this market's close time is listed as TBD, check the KALSHI market page for the final lock/close time before placing trades.
Settlement is determined by the scoreboard and the contract's rules, not by roster intentions. An injury or ejection can materially change probabilities midgame, but the market will settle according to the stated definition of a second-half win; monitor official game reports and the contract for any special settlement provisions.
Focus on information that materially affects second-half scoring: typical second-half minutes for key players, bench scoring reliability, coach tendencies for closing lineups, recent fatigue or scheduling impacts, and how the teams have trended in second halves against similar opponents. Use that context together with live game developments (fouls, injuries, momentum) to inform timing and sizing of any trade.