| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 3.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 5.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 6.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many total runs will be scored in the first five innings of the Los Angeles A vs Houston game; it matters to traders who focus on early-game pitching matchups and tactical managerial decisions.
First-five innings markets isolate early-game dynamics where starting pitchers, batting order, and initial bullpen usage have outsized impact compared with a full-game market. Historical patterns show early-inning scoring can diverge from full-game expectations because managers deploy starters and relievers differently and because short-term weather and ballpark effects can be amplified.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation for which run-range outcome is most likely in innings 1–5 and update as news about starters, lineups, weather, or injuries arrives; interpret movements as the market incorporating new information rather than fixed probabilities.
It measures the combined number of runs scored by both teams during innings 1 through 5 inclusive; only runs scored in those innings count toward settlement.
The market's close time is listed as TBD; in practice, similar markets typically close at or shortly before the scheduled first pitch—check the KALSHI event page for the official, final close time.
Starting pitchers drive early-inning run expectations because they face the top of the order and typically pitch the first several innings; changes to the announced starters or news about their health or recent workload will materially affect market expectations.
Late scratches or lineup swaps—particularly involving hitters at the top of the order or a confirmed pinch-hitting strategy—can shift expectations for early scoring, so traders monitor official lineup submissions and injury reports closely.
Settlement in the event of postponement, suspension, or an unfinished game follows KALSHI's platform rules; some platforms void or cancel markets if the requisite innings are not completed, so consult the event rules on the KALSHI page for the definitive policy.