| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner -5.5 games | 41% | 42¢ | 50¢ | — | $495 | Trade → |
| Joao Fonseca -7.5 games | 99% | 2¢ | 100¢ | — | $25 | Trade → |
| Joao Fonseca -5.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jannik Sinner -3.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Joao Fonseca -3.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jannik Sinner -7.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jannik Sinner -1.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Joao Fonseca -1.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many games Joao Fonseca will win relative to Jannik Sinner in their match (game spread), letting traders express views on the margin of victory rather than just the match winner.
Joao Fonseca is an emerging player while Jannik Sinner is an established top-level competitor; differences in experience, surface preferences, and recent form shape expectations for the matchup. The market on KALSHI currently lists eight discrete spread outcomes, has seen $520 in total volume traded, and the official close time is TBD by the platform.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about the likely game-margin outcome and will move as new information (injuries, conditions, lineup confirmations) becomes available; compare prices across outcomes to gauge which margins the market favors.
The close time is set by KALSHI and listed on the market page (currently TBD). Settlement normally occurs after the official match score is reported; if the match is postponed, canceled, or not completed, KALSHI's stated market settlement rules determine outcome.
Each outcome corresponds to a defined range of game-margin results (for example, one player winning by a certain number of games). The market page shows the exact mapping of outcomes to spread ranges and any special categories such as match cancellation.
Settlement follows the official match record: if a player retires, the final recorded score at the time of retirement is used for settlement unless KALSHI's rules provide an exception. Check the platform's contingency rules for incomplete matches.
Head-to-head gives context on matchup dynamics but for spread markets you should weigh recent set and game scorelines, surface-specific results, and match lengths more heavily because they better indicate likely margins.
Late injury or fitness updates, withdrawal or lineup confirmations, practice-court reports, weather or indoor/outdoor condition changes, and weekend scheduling shifts are common drivers; professional oddsmaker lines and late liquidity from large traders can also shift prices.