| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 79% | 31¢ | 78¢ | — | $156 | Trade → |
| Over 0.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 80% | 70¢ | 99¢ | — | $121 | Trade → |
| Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 80% | 50¢ | 99¢ | — | $20 | Trade → |
| Over 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 80% | 18¢ | 99¢ | — | $20 | Trade → |
| Over 3.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 80% | 47¢ | 80¢ | — | $1 | Trade → |
| Over 6.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 7¢ | 77¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 5.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 14¢ | 79¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many total runs will be scored by Italy and the USA combined during the first five innings of their game. It matters because bettors and traders can express expectations about early-game scoring, which is sensitive to starting pitchers, lineups, and in-game conditions.
Italy vs USA is an international baseball/softball-style matchup where roster construction, pitching depth, and recent tournament context can differ from domestic leagues. Italy often fields a mix of domestic players and dual nationals, while the USA typically draws on deeper professional resources; the specific rosters and tournament stakes for this game are key to interpreting expected early scoring.
Market prices here reflect the crowd’s aggregated expectation for runs in the first five innings and will move as new information arrives (starting pitcher announcements, weather, lineup changes). Use prices as a real-time signal rather than a fixed prediction, and remember they incorporate both skill and uncertainty.
It refers to the combined number of runs scored by both teams through the end of the top and bottom of the fifth inning; runs scored after the fifth or in extra innings are excluded for this market.
The seven outcomes represent mutually exclusive ranges or discrete total categories for combined runs in innings 1–5; consult the event page for the precise labels, since each outcome corresponds to a different scoring band or total value.
The event page lists the closing time as TBD; typically such markets close before the first pitch or at a predetermined time, and settlement occurs after the game reaches the official status for five innings per the platform’s rules—check the KALSHI event rules for final timing and settlement criteria.
Starting pitcher news and confirmed lineups are high-impact updates: a stronger-than-expected starter or a lineup missing key hitters will materially change early-inning run expectations and often prompt rapid market price movement.
Settlement in the event of a suspended or shortened game depends on the platform’s contract terms; common outcomes include using the official score at the time of suspension if the game is declared official, applying specific league rules, or voiding the market—refer to the KALSHI rulebook linked on the event page.