| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Indiana wins 1st half | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| New York wins 1st half | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which team—Indiana or New York—will be leading at the official end of the first half of the listed matchup; it matters because first-half outcomes reflect in-play dynamics and are traded independently of full-game results.
First-half markets focus on the initial 24 minutes of play (two 12-minute quarters in NBA rules or the game's standard first half depending on sport) and can diverge from full-game expectations due to starting lineups, early-game strategies, and tempo. Historical first-half performance, head-to-head early trends, and coaching tendencies can all influence who leads at halftime. Because this market has three outcomes, ties at the half (equal score) are treated as a distinct result.
Market prices represent collective expectations and change as information arrives (injury reports, starting lineups, in-game developments); interpret price movement as updates to the market’s view rather than fixed probabilities. Settlement is based on the event data and rules published by the platform (KALSHI) and will reflect the official halftime score.
The event close is listed as TBD; typically the market closes before the game starts or when the platform specifies and settles based on the official halftime score reported by the designated data source. Check the market page or platform rules for the exact close and settlement protocol.
The three outcomes correspond to Indiana leading at the official end of the first half, New York leading at the official end of the first half, and a tie (both teams level on points at halftime).
Late lineup or injury news typically leads to immediate price movement as traders update expectations; settlement still uses the official halftime score regardless of pre-game changes, so the market reflects whatever information is known prior to closure.
If the game does not start or the first half is not completed, the platform’s event resolution rules apply—common outcomes are voiding the market or applying a predefined contingency. Consult KALSHI’s resolution policy for the exact handling of suspended or canceled games.
No; only the official score at the end of the first half is used to determine the outcome. Overtime and later game periods do not change first-half settlement.