| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton wins the 1H by over 17.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dayton wins the 1H by over 11.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dayton wins the 1H by over 14.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dayton wins the 1H by over 8.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dayton wins the 1H by over 20.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dayton wins the 1H by over 2.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Illinois St. wins the 1H by over 7.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Illinois St. wins the 1H by over 10.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dayton wins the 1H by over 5.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Illinois St. wins the 1H by over 1.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Illinois St. wins the 1H by over 4.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets participants trade on the first-half point spread between Illinois State and Dayton, isolating early-game performance rather than final-game outcomes. First-half markets matter for traders who want to capitalize on matchup-specific opening strategies, tempo differences, or late-breaking lineup news.
Illinois State (Missouri Valley Conference) and Dayton (Atlantic 10) bring different recent histories, styles, and roster compositions that can produce distinct first-half dynamics compared with full games. First-half spreads emphasize starters, opening strategies, and coaching tendencies in the early minutes, so historical head-to-head results and recent first-half performance trends are particularly relevant. Venue, travel, and short-term injury reports often have outsized effects on the opening 20 minutes.
Market prices indicate the collective expectations about which side of the first-half spread is more likely to occur; lower-priced outcomes reflect greater market support. Because spreads and prices update with new information (lineup changes, injuries, tip time), consider liquidity and news timing when interpreting prices.
The market closes at the time specified on the KALSHI event page; typically first-half spread markets stop trading at or shortly before the first-half tip-off. Because this event lists a TBD close, check the platform for real-time close updates.
The 11 outcomes correspond to discrete first-half spread result categories defined by the event (for example, specific spread intervals or exact first-half margins). Each outcome settles based on where the actual first-half point differential falls; consult the event details on KALSHI for the exact mapping of outcomes to score ranges.
Lineup and injury updates are high-impact for first-half markets because starters and early rotations determine the opening 20 minutes. A late scratch or reduced minutes for a primary scorer or defender should prompt reassessment of exposure and may materially shift market prices.
Focus on each team’s projected starters who handle shots, run the offense, or anchor the defense—especially point guards, primary scorers, and interior rim defenders—since they typically log the most early minutes and set the first-half tone.
A total volume of $0 indicates no recorded trades yet, implying low liquidity; posted prices may be preliminary or thinly supported, and entering or exiting positions could move prices substantially. Monitor for updates and additional order flow before committing large positions.