| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana St. wins by over 1.5 Points | 48% | 48¢ | 49¢ | — | $48K | Trade → |
| Idaho wins by over 2.5 Points | 42% | 44¢ | 45¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Idaho wins by over 17.5 Points | 7% | 3¢ | 9¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Idaho wins by over 14.5 Points | 11% | 7¢ | 12¢ | — | $979 | Trade → |
| Montana St. wins by over 4.5 Points | 34% | 34¢ | 38¢ | — | $576 | Trade → |
| Idaho wins by over 5.5 Points | 32% | 32¢ | 35¢ | — | $353 | Trade → |
| Montana St. wins by over 13.5 Points | 12% | 8¢ | 13¢ | — | $329 | Trade → |
| Idaho wins by over 11.5 Points | 13% | 16¢ | 19¢ | — | $311 | Trade → |
| Montana St. wins by over 7.5 Points | 28% | 24¢ | 28¢ | — | $36 | Trade → |
| Montana St. wins by over 10.5 Points | 19% | 17¢ | 19¢ | — | $1 | Trade → |
| Idaho wins by over 8.5 Points | 0% | 23¢ | 25¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets traders buy and sell outcomes tied to the point spread for the Idaho at Montana St. matchup; it matters because spread markets aggregate bettors' and traders' expectations about the game's margin of victory. Monitoring this market provides real-time insight into how information and sentiment are moving ahead of the game.
Idaho and Montana State meet as regional FCS/college opponents whose games often feature meaningful travel, weather and matchup angles that influence scoring margins. Montana State typically plays at home in Bozeman, where local conditions and fan environment can matter, while Idaho's roster changes, coaching decisions, and recent performance trends will also shape expectations. Historical head-to-head results and each program's season context provide useful background but recent injuries and lineups usually drive short-term movement.
In a multi-outcome spread market, each listed outcome represents a specific margin range; market prices indicate how much traders support those margin ranges relative to alternatives. Use the market as a dynamic consensus view of likely margins and monitor movement rather than treating any single outcome as certain.
The event page currently lists the close as TBD; the platform will update the listed close time. Typically, spread markets close before kickoff but confirm the official close on the KALSHI event page prior to the game.
Each of the 11 outcomes corresponds to a specific margin range for the final score (for example, team A by X points, team B by Y points, etc.). The winning outcome will be determined by the official final margin from the game's sanctioned box score as published by the league or game officials.
Home-field does not change settlement rules—settlement is based solely on the official final margin—but home advantage often influences trader expectations and can shift demand among spread outcomes.
Price movement following an injury report reflects traders updating expectations about the likely margin; larger or more impactful injuries (e.g., to a starting QB) typically produce bigger shifts across the spread outcomes.
Key movers include official starting lineup announcements, injury/availability updates, weather forecasts for Bozeman, late scratchings or suspensions, and sizable bets that change market liquidity or implied consensus.