| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston wins the 1H by over 7.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Houston wins the 1H by over 4.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Houston wins the 1H by over 1.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Memphis wins the 1H by over 2.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Memphis wins the 1H by over 5.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Memphis wins the 1H by over 8.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Memphis wins the 1H by over 11.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Memphis wins the 1H by over 14.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Memphis wins the 1H by over 17.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Memphis wins the 1H by over 20.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Memphis wins the 1H by over 23.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how large the point spread between Houston and Memphis will be at the end of the first half; it matters because first-half markets isolate early-game dynamics and let traders express views on starters, tempo, and matchups.
Houston and Memphis typically present contrasting styles that shape first-half expectations: one team may push pace and quick scoring while the other emphasizes half-court defense and transition control. Recent head-to-head trends, rotation changes, and late roster news all influence how the opening 24 minutes are likely to play out and are reflected in the market.
Market prices are a real-time aggregation of trader expectations about the first-half margin; they move as new information (lineups, injuries, coaching notes) arrives. Use prices as a signal of the crowd’s current view rather than an immutable prediction.
The market close is listed as TBD on the event page; normally trading closes at a platform-specified cutoff shortly before game tip-off or the start of the first half—check the KALSHI market page or notifications for the exact cutoff time.
Each of the 11 outcomes corresponds to a specific first-half point-differential range or discrete spread level defined in the contract; the market page shows the exact outcome labels and settlement conditions, which are based on the official halftime score differential.
Track official starting lineup announcements, injury reports, last-minute scratches, and any news about primary ball-handlers or defensive specialists—changes to those roles have the largest impact on first-half dynamics.
Coaching decisions set matchups, minute distribution, and early-game tactics; changes such as an increased allotment of minutes to a defensive wing or a plan to press early can materially shift expected first-half scoring and thus the spread.
Settlement follows the contract definitions and KALSHI's rulebook: outcomes are determined by the precise official halftime score differential and the pre-specified outcome ranges; for questions about boundary handling or disputed scores, consult KALSHI support and the market contract details.