| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio wins by over 5.5 Points | 53% | 51¢ | 53¢ | — | $292K | Trade → |
| San Antonio wins by over 2.5 Points | 63% | 62¢ | 63¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| San Antonio wins by over 8.5 Points | 39% | 39¢ | 40¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| San Antonio wins by over 11.5 Points | 32% | 30¢ | 32¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Houston wins by over 10.5 Points | 11% | 11¢ | 13¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Houston wins by over 7.5 Points | 14% | 15¢ | 18¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Houston wins by over 4.5 Points | 24% | 23¢ | 25¢ | — | $934 | Trade → |
| San Antonio wins by over 14.5 Points | 25% | 22¢ | 25¢ | — | $750 | Trade → |
| San Antonio wins by over 20.5 Points | 13% | 10¢ | 13¢ | — | $647 | Trade → |
| San Antonio wins by over 17.5 Points | 18% | 15¢ | 18¢ | — | $334 | Trade → |
| Houston wins by over 1.5 Points | 32% | 29¢ | 32¢ | — | $311 | Trade → |
This market asks how the point spread will resolve for the Houston at San Antonio game on the KALSHI exchange; spread markets matter because they reflect the market’s view of the expected margin and let traders express opinions on which team will cover.
Houston and San Antonio are regular opponents whose games are shaped by home-court, travel and roster matchups; outcomes can hinge on recent form, injuries, and tactical matchups rather than season-long records alone. Because the market is labeled “Spread,” it is focused on the margin of victory rather than simply which team wins, and liquidity and news flow can move prices quickly as game time approaches.
Market prices represent the collective assessment of traders about which spread outcome is most likely and will move as new information (lineups, injuries, rest, weather) arrives; interpret prices as real‑time signals to be combined with fundamental analysis, not guarantees.
The market close is listed as TBD on the exchange—check the KALSHI market page for the exact cutoff. Settlement typically occurs after the official final score is reported by the league; many spread markets include overtime in the final margin unless the platform specifies otherwise.
Those outcomes correspond to discrete spread brackets or specific margin outcomes defined by the market creator; each outcome maps to a particular final-margin range and only the outcome matching the official margin pays out—view the market details to see the exact mapping.
Settlement is based on the official final score margin between Houston and San Antonio as recorded by the league; read the KALSHI market rules for treatment of overtime and any edge cases (e.g., game cancellations or forfeits).
Availability of each team’s primary contributors—for example, the leading scorers/centers and any late scratches on Houston or San Antonio—are the biggest drivers. Late reports about starters, load management decisions, or key rotation changes create the largest price moves.
Use recent head‑to‑head as one input but prioritize current-season form, injury status, home/away splits, pace and matchup statistics; short‑term trends (last several games) and lineup information typically have more predictive value than distant past meetings.