| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hole-in-one | 20% | 1¢ | 15¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
This market asks whether at least one hole-in-one (ace) will occur during the Arnold Palmer Invitational. It matters because aces are rare, high-impact events that drive trading interest and reflect course setup and player approach on par-3s.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is a PGA Tour event held at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, played over multiple official rounds on a course with several short par-3s that create ace opportunities depending on setup. Historically, hole-in-one occurrences at professional events are uncommon but can be influenced year-to-year by pin placements, tee locations, field composition, and weather during competition rounds.
Market prices represent the crowd’s collective expectation about whether an ace will be recorded during the tournament; they update as new information arrives (weather, tee sheet, pin placements, practice-round reports) and should be treated as a real-time indicator of market sentiment rather than a prediction guarantee.
An ace must occur during official tournament play and be recorded in the official scoring for the event; shots during practice rounds, pro-am rounds, or exhibition play do not count unless they are part of the tournament’s official rounds and verified by tournament officials.
This market is concerned with whether at least one hole-in-one occurs; it will resolve as a single outcome based on whether one or more aces are recorded during the official tournament rounds.
Only aces that occur during the tournament’s official scoring periods count. If a playoff shot is part of official tournament play as defined by the event and verified by officials, it would count; confirm resolution rules on the platform for any edge cases.
Players who consistently hit greens in regulation on par-3s, have strong short-iron accuracy, and who are in the field during rounds with accessible pin positions are the most relevant; pre-tournament practice reports indicating repeated close approaches also matter.
Closure is listed as TBD; typically such markets close before or at the start of official tournament play and resolve after the tournament concludes when officials confirm whether an ace occurred. Check the platform’s event page for the exact close and resolution times.