| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA wins by over 1.5 runs | 20% | 20¢ | 100¢ | — | $169 | Trade → |
| USA wins by over 2.5 runs | 99% | 55¢ | 99¢ | — | $81 | Trade → |
| Great Britain wins by over 1.5 runs | 50% | 0¢ | 50¢ | — | $4 | Trade → |
| Great Britain wins by over 2.5 runs | 0% | 0¢ | 53¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which side of the First 5 Innings run spread will apply in the Great Britain vs USA game, isolating performance in innings 1–5. It matters because early-game pitching and lineup decisions often determine short-run outcomes and trading opportunities.
This is an international baseball/softball-style matchup between national teams where roster construction, announced starters, and tournament context can differ from regular-season club play. Because the market focuses on only the first five innings, it emphasizes starting pitchers and top-of-order run production rather than late-inning bullpen usage or managerial substitutions.
Market prices reflect the consensus expectation of traders based on available information and will move as news arrives (starter announcements, weather, injuries). Treat prices as a dynamic indicator of market sentiment rather than a fixed prediction.
It compares runs scored by each team through the end of the fifth inning and determines which side of the posted spread the game falls on; the market resolves based solely on innings 1–5 and ignores later scoring.
Settlement follows the exchange's official rules for game completion; commonly, markets tied to a fixed-innings range require the official game to reach that inning for standard settlement, but exact handling (void, alternate settlement, or use of official partial-game rules) will be specified by KALSHI on the market page.
Very important — because the market only covers the first five innings, the starting pitcher and opposing lineup carry outsized influence; a late change in the starter or an unexpected matchup shift can materially alter expected first-five outcomes.
While this specific close time is to be announced, markets of this type usually close shortly before the first pitch or when official starters are locked; check the market page for the definitive close time and any last-minute updates.
Head-to-head history may be limited and less predictive for a short-innings market; prioritize current starter matchups, recent form, lineup announcements, and situational factors such as venue and rest over long-ago meetings.