| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Zverev -3.5 games | 42% | 42¢ | 55¢ | — | $55 | Trade → |
| Alexander Zverev -1.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Frances Tiafoe -1.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alexander Zverev -5.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Frances Tiafoe -7.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Frances Tiafoe -5.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Frances Tiafoe -3.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alexander Zverev -7.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market trades the game-margin outcome between Frances Tiafoe and Alexander Zverev — i.e., how many games one player wins relative to the other. It matters because the game spread captures expected match competitiveness and lets traders express views on margin rather than just winner/loser.
Both players are established ATP professionals with distinct playing styles; match-up dynamics (serve strength, return ability, movement) and the tournament context influence expected game margins. Factors such as surface, match format (best-of-3 vs best-of-5), recent form, and any injury or fatigue issues will materially affect the likely spread.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation for which game-margin interval will occur; higher prices indicate outcomes the market views as less likely relative to lower-priced outcomes. Use the prices as a real-time consensus signal, but monitor pre-match information and in-play developments that can move the market.
The market close is listed as TBD; trading platforms typically close game-spread markets shortly before the match start. Check the Kalshi market page for the official, final close time and any last-minute updates.
Each of the eight outcomes corresponds to a specific game-margin interval (for example, ranges in which one player wins by a certain number of games). Refer to the market's outcome labels on Kalshi to see the exact intervals covered by each option.
Settlement is based on the tournament's official final score: total games won by each player are compared and the resulting game difference determines which predefined interval (outcome) wins. Kalshi's official settlement rules govern edge cases and final determinations.
Resolution in incomplete-match scenarios follows Kalshi's stated settlement policy for the market: some markets may be voided, settled based on the official score at stoppage, or handled by another specific rule. Consult the market terms on Kalshi for the exact procedure.
Pre-match cues such as official injury updates, warm-up observations, and announced lineups, plus in-match metrics like serve win percentage, break-point opportunities converted, medical timeouts, and momentum swings, are the primary drivers that will move the market.