| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 73% | 41¢ | 73¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Mirassol | 9% | 10¢ | 29¢ | — | $381 | Trade → |
| Tie | 10% | 13¢ | 30¢ | — | $327 | Trade → |
This market asks how the Flamengo vs Mirassol match will play out and aggregates trader expectations about the match outcome. It matters because market prices can reflect shifting information such as lineups, injuries, and game-day conditions.
Flamengo is one of Brazil's largest clubs with regular continental and national commitments; Mirassol is a smaller club that often competes in state competitions and lower national divisions. Matches between clubs at different resource levels can favor the bigger club on paper, but cup formats, squad rotation, and single-game dynamics make upsets possible.
Market prices represent the consensus of traders and will move as new information arrives (lineups, injuries, weather, etc.). Use prices as a signal combined with independent information rather than as definitive forecasts.
The platform lists the official close and resolution times; this event currently shows the close as TBD, so check the KALSHI event page for updates. The contract will resolve according to the marketplace's stated settlement rules once the match outcome is confirmed.
Starting XIs are high-impact information: confirmed absences or surprise starters typically move expectations quickly. Monitor official club channels and reputable beat reporters for lineups; traders often update positions once lineups are public.
Yes—competition type affects incentives and rotation. In knockout or high-stakes matches clubs tend to field stronger lineups, whereas in friendlies or congested schedules teams may rest regulars. Verify the match type to assess how seriously each side is likely to compete.
Settlement depends on KALSHI's event rules: some contracts resolve on regulation-time results (90 minutes plus stoppage), others include extra time or penalties. If a match is postponed or abandoned, the platform's stated contingency and resolution policies determine settlement—check the event terms on KALSHI.
Key real-time signals include official lineups, pre-match injury updates, late scratches, weather and pitch reports, in-game goals/red cards, and price/volume movements on the market itself. Trusted reporters, club communications, and live match feeds are the fastest sources for actionable information.