| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabiano Caruana | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Anish Giri | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matthias Bluebaum | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Javokhir Sindarov | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Wei Yi | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Andrey Esipenko | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hikaru Nakamura | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which player will win the FIDE Candidates Chess Tournament, the qualifier that determines the challenger for the World Chess Championship. It matters because the winner becomes the official challenger to the reigning world champion and is a key signal of elite form in classical chess.
The Candidates is a recurring FIDE event contested by a small field of top players who earned their spots through qualification paths such as rating, world cup, grand prix, or nominations. Historically the winner of the Candidates goes on to play the World Championship match, and performances here are closely watched for opening preparation, psychological resilience, and stamina over a long classical event. This edition lists eight outcomes corresponding to the eight entrants in the tournament.
Market odds reflect the collective view of traders about each entrant’s chance of emerging as the tournament winner; they update as new information arrives (game results, withdrawals, health, pairings, etc.). Interpret the odds as a real-time summary of market sentiment and new developments, not as fixed forecasts.
The event’s calendar and the market close time are shown on the market page; the market close is currently listed as TBD. Typically the market closes before or at the start of the first round or when the official field is finalized, so check the market page for the definitive close time.
Each of the eight outcomes maps to one of the official tournament entrants for this edition; the market page lists the individual players included. If a late substitution occurs, the market listing and rules will indicate how that change is handled.
The winner earns the right to challenge the reigning World Chess Champion in the next World Chess Championship match, subject to FIDE’s cycle and match scheduling and any applicable regulations for that cycle.
Tie-break procedures are governed by the official tournament regulations for this edition and may include criteria such as head-to-head, number of wins, tie-break scores, or rapid/blitz playoffs; the market settles on the player officially declared the winner after those procedures and any playoff are completed.
Key movers include game results and upset wins, withdrawals or health issues, surprising opening novelties or preparation leaks, changes in pairings or standings late in the event, and public statements from players or teams that alter perceived fitness or readiness.