| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke wins the 1H by over 5.5 points | 46% | 45¢ | 51¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| Duke wins the 1H by over 2.5 points | 67% | 65¢ | 67¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Duke wins the 1H by over 8.5 points | 39% | 28¢ | 39¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Duke wins the 1H by over 11.5 points | 32% | 17¢ | 35¢ | — | $374 | Trade → |
| North Carolina St. wins the 1H by over 1.5 points | 26% | 7¢ | 28¢ | — | $328 | Trade → |
| North Carolina St. wins the 1H by over 4.5 points | 29% | 0¢ | 33¢ | — | $6 | Trade → |
| North Carolina St. wins the 1H by over 10.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 27¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Duke wins the 1H by over 20.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 27¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| North Carolina St. wins the 1H by over 7.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 30¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Duke wins the 1H by over 17.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 30¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Duke wins the 1H by over 14.5 points | 0% | 4¢ | 29¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the point spread will look at the end of the first half of the Duke vs North Carolina St. game; it matters because first-half spreads isolate early-game dynamics and are used by traders and bettors to express expectations about opening performance.
Duke and North Carolina State are conference opponents with a history of competitive matchups; first-half spreads reflect coaching game-plans, starting lineups, and the teams' tendencies to start games quickly or slowly. Because the market closes relative to the first-half period, pregame news and early in-game developments can shift expectations more than longer-duration markets.
Prices in this market represent the market's collective view of which first-half spread outcome is most likely and update as participants trade and as new information arrives. Treat prices as real-time signals of sentiment rather than fixed forecasts; they change with injuries, lineup announcements, and other news.
The close time is set by the exchange and typically occurs at or just before the start of the first half; 'TBD' means the exchange has not yet published the precise cutoff. Check the KALSHI market page or official notices for the confirmed close time before trading.
The 11 discrete outcomes correspond to different point-differential ranges for the first half (brackets such as Team A by X to Y points, a tie range, etc.). When the first half ends, the single bracket that contains the actual margin is the winning outcome.
Late injuries commonly produce rapid price movement as traders incorporate the new information into expectations for early-game scoring and defense; significant lineup changes typically shift demand toward outcomes that reflect a larger advantage for the unaffected team.
Resolution follows the exchange's contingency rules — many platforms void or refund contracts if the event does not reach the defined settlement condition (in this case, a completed first half); consult KALSHI's official rules for the specific cancellation and settlement policy.
Useful historical aspects include each team's typical first-half scoring margin in recent meetings, tendencies for slow or hot starts, and how coaching matchups influence early-time strategy; however, recent roster changes, injuries, and current-season form often matter more than older results.