| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominican Republic -1.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 16¢ | 78¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Venezuela -2.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 4¢ | 79¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dominican Republic -2.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 11¢ | 79¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Venezuela -1.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 7¢ | 78¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which side of the run differential spread will hold after the first five innings of the Dominican Republic vs Venezuela game. It matters for traders who want exposure to early-game performance rather than the final result.
This is a head-to-head international baseball matchup between two national teams with deep talent pools; outcomes depend heavily on which players and pitchers are active for this particular game. Unlike season-long club play, international lineups and rotation choices can change frequently based on availability, tournament rules, and managerial strategy.
Odds in this market reflect the market’s collective expectation about the run differential through the first five innings; they update as new information arrives (lineups, starters, weather). They are not a fixed forecast but a real-time synthesis of available data and trader sentiment.
This market settles based on the official run differential after five completed innings. If the game is suspended or called before five innings are completed, settlement follows the exchange’s rules for shortened games (check KALSHI’s official resolution policy).
The starting pitchers for each side and the top of each batting order matter most, since they determine early run prevention and creation; also watch for any late changes to those starters or the leadoff hitters.
Late changes can materially shift expected early-run dynamics; markets typically react quickly, so monitor official team announcements and be prepared for price movement or to adjust positions before the market closes.
No — only runs scored through the end of the fifth inning determine this market. Scoring after the fifth inning or any extra innings do not affect settlement.
Look up recent box scores and play-by-play logs to extract runs by inning and starting-pitcher splits; compare matchups with the same or similar pitchers and review tournament-specific trends, since international rosters and strategies differ from club play.