| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 3.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 5.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 6.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks participants to forecast the combined number of runs scored by Detroit and San Diego during the first five innings of their game; it matters because first-five totals isolate early-game pitching and offensive dynamics that differ from full-game outcomes.
First-five-inning markets focus on the portion of the contest most influenced by the starting pitchers and the top of each lineup, excluding late-inning reliever effects. Historical tendencies, ballpark characteristics, and announced game-day information (pitchers, lineups, weather) are the main context for assessing expected early scoring. Traders use these markets to express views on starters, matchups, and early-game strategies.
Market prices indicate the collective view of which run-total range is currently favored and how strongly the market is leaning; use price movements to see how new information (pitcher announcements, weather, lineup changes) shifts expectations.
The event page currently lists the close time as TBD; markets of this type typically lock at or shortly before first pitch or when starting pitchers are officially confirmed. Check the event page and platform notifications for the exact lock time.
Starting pitchers are the primary driver: pitchers who induce weak contact or strikeouts generally reduce early-run expectations, while contact- or homer-prone starters tend to increase them. Traders monitor recent starts, pitch mix, walk rates, and matchup history versus the opposing lineup.
The seven outcomes correspond to distinct run-total ranges (buckets) covering all possible combined run totals through five innings; the market page lists the exact numerical ranges and the settlement rules for each bucket.
Settlement follows the platform’s stated rules: markets may be voided, settled using official MLB records for the completed portion, or handled per postponement policies. Consult KALSHI’s rulebook or the specific event terms for the definitive resolution procedure.
Monitor official starting-pitcher announcements and any late scratches, batting-order releases, weather updates (especially wind and rain), and last-minute bullpen or lineup notes—each can materially change early-inning scoring expectations.