| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit wins by over 2.5 Points | 47% | 44¢ | 47¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Detroit wins by over 17.5 Points | 10% | 7¢ | 12¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Miami wins by over 1.5 Points | 44% | 44¢ | 46¢ | — | $879 | Trade → |
| Detroit wins by over 5.5 Points | 35% | 30¢ | 35¢ | — | $171 | Trade → |
| Miami wins by over 10.5 Points | 0% | 14¢ | 25¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Miami wins by over 7.5 Points | 0% | 21¢ | 33¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Detroit wins by over 8.5 Points | 0% | 22¢ | 33¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Detroit wins by over 11.5 Points | 0% | 14¢ | 26¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Detroit wins by over 14.5 Points | 0% | 12¢ | 20¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Miami wins by over 13.5 Points | 0% | 12¢ | 17¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Miami wins by over 4.5 Points | 0% | 30¢ | 42¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market trades the point-spread outcome for the Detroit at Miami game—letting participants express views on how large a margin either team will win by. It matters because spread markets aggregate information about injuries, matchups, and game conditions that drive expected margins.
The spread for a Detroit at Miami matchup reflects the specific teams, venue, and timing shown on the market page; season context (standings, recent form, roster changes) shapes expectations. Historical results between the clubs can provide color, but week-to-week factors such as injuries, rest, and travel often move the market more sharply.
Market prices indicate how traders collectively view the likelihood of each point-differential outcome; each listed outcome corresponds to a particular spread or range of margins as defined by the market description. Watch the outcome labels on the market page to map prices to exact point-differential scenarios.
The market will close at the time shown on the KALSHI market page; typically spread markets close at or shortly before official game start (kickoff). If the close time is listed as TBD, monitor the market for an updated close time and expect trading to be suspended as kickoff approaches or when key late-breaking information is released.
Each of the 11 outcomes maps to a specific point-spread result or a range of margins (for example, one outcome might correspond to Detroit covering by small margins, another to Miami winning by a large margin). The market’s outcome labels or description on the platform specify the exact point-differential ranges each outcome covers.
Significant injuries usually prompt immediate re-pricing: the market adjusts to reflect the diminished or increased expected scoring margin. The size and direction of movement depend on the player’s role, quality of the replacement, and timing of the news (late, confirmed injuries often move prices more).
Miami’s home environment—surface type and warm, humid climate—can favor the home team, especially if Detroit is coming from a colder climate or a long road trip. Time-zone differences, flight schedules, and short rest can also depress visiting-team performance; incorporate these logistical and environmental factors into your assessment of expected margin.
Head-to-head history offers context (coaching styles, matchup tendencies), but markets tend to prioritize current-season indicators: recent performance, roster changes, injuries, and situational factors. Use historical results as one input among several, giving more weight to up-to-date team metrics and news.