| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver wins the 1H by over 6.5 points | 51% | 51¢ | 55¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Denver wins the 1H by over 3.5 points | 59% | 59¢ | 65¢ | — | $452 | Trade → |
| Utah wins the 1H by over 3.5 points | 22% | 2¢ | 49¢ | — | $69 | Trade → |
| Utah wins the 1H by over 6.5 points | 48% | 0¢ | 22¢ | — | $58 | Trade → |
| Utah wins the 1H by over 21.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 13¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Utah wins the 1H by over 18.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 13¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Utah wins the 1H by over 12.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Utah wins the 1H by over 9.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 22¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Utah wins the 1H by over 15.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 13¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Denver wins the 1H by over 9.5 points | 0% | 37¢ | 48¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which first-half point-spread outcome will occur in the Denver vs Utah game; it matters because first-half spread markets let traders express views on the margin specifically in the opening 24 minutes rather than the full game.
The market isolates the first half of the matchup between Denver and Utah, so factors that affect opening rotations and early-game tempo are more important than fourth-quarter depth. Historical head-to-heads, recent first-half performance, last-minute lineup news, and external factors such as travel or rest can move prices. Because the market offers 10 discrete outcomes, it partitions the range of possible first-half margins into multiple bins rather than a single binary result.
Prices in this prediction market represent the collective market judgment about which first-half spread outcome is most likely and will move as new information arrives (injuries, starting lineups, heavy bets). Treat prices as signals that update with information rather than fixed forecasts.
The market close time is listed on the event page and currently shows as TBD; typical practice is closing at or shortly before game start. Settlement is based on the official first-half score as recorded by the league's official box score once the first half is complete.
Each of the 10 outcomes corresponds to a predefined spread bin or specific margin range for the first half (for example, discrete ranges of the point differential). The exact mapping of outcome labels to margin ranges is available on the market page and in the market rules.
Immediate drivers include late-breaking injury news or scratches in warmups, announced starting lineups, confirmatory or contradicting team reports, and large trades or sudden shifts in liquidity. These items are most impactful before and during the opening minutes of the first half.
Markets follow the platform's official rules for delays, suspensions, and cancellations. Settlement typically requires an official completion of the first half; if the league or platform voids the first half or fails to produce an official result, the market will be resolved according to KALSHI's documented event resolution policy.
Historical first-half head-to-head results can provide context on matchup tendencies, but sample sizes are often small and team compositions change. Combine recent first-half performance, current-season splits, lineup continuity, and injury/rest info for a more reliable view rather than relying solely on distant past matchups.