| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 2+ | 45% | 41¢ | 45¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Aaron Gordon: 2+ | 44% | 40¢ | 45¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Nikola Jokić: 2+ | 58% | 54¢ | 58¢ | — | $697 | Trade → |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3+ | 21% | 16¢ | 21¢ | — | $384 | Trade → |
| Nikola Jokić: 3+ | 37% | 28¢ | 31¢ | — | $113 | Trade → |
| Nikola Jokić: 4+ | 19% | 10¢ | 14¢ | — | $100 | Trade → |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 4+ | 9% | 5¢ | 8¢ | — | $33 | Trade → |
| Aaron Gordon: 1+ | 80% | 67¢ | 75¢ | — | $30 | Trade → |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 1+ | 69% | 71¢ | 75¢ | — | $26 | Trade → |
| Aaron Gordon: 3+ | 23% | 16¢ | 23¢ | — | $20 | Trade → |
| Aaron Gordon: 4+ | 0% | 0¢ | 10¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Aaron Gordon: 5+ | 0% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nikola Jokić: 1+ | 0% | 76¢ | 88¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nikola Jokić: 5+ | 0% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 5+ | 0% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks how three-point shooting will resolve in the NBA game between the Denver Nuggets and the Oklahoma City Thunder; it matters because three-point volume and accuracy can swing game outcomes and betting markets.
Denver and Oklahoma City have contrasting offensive styles and rosters that influence perimeter shooting — one team may prioritize ball movement and spacing while the other may emphasize pace and transition threes. Historical matchup trends, recent rotations, and injury status tend to affect the distribution of attempts and makes from beyond the arc in these games.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregate expectations about the labeled three-point outcomes and will move as new information (lineups, injuries, rest, weather for travel, etc.) arrives; use prices to compare relative market sentiment rather than as fixed predictions.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific, labeled result related to three-pointers for this matchup (for example ranges, exact totals, or which team hits a threshold). The precise meaning of each outcome is shown on the market page; check the outcome labels and the market description before trading.
The market's close time is listed as TBD on the page; Kalshi markets typically close at a pre-announced time (often shortly before the game's tip or at a scheduled settlement cutoff). Monitor the market page for the final close time and any updates.
Watch the teams' primary perimeter scorers and regular three-point shooters (starting guards and wings and key bench shooters), plus any matchup that leaves an opponent open on the arc. Check the official injury report, starting lineups, and late substitution news on game day to see who will actually take attempts.
In-game events materially change the number of attempts and makes — injuries and foul trouble reduce opportunities for specific shooters; overtime creates extra possessions that can increase totals. Whether overtime counts toward settlement depends on the market's rules; confirm the settlement method and official data source on the market page.
Kalshi settles markets using the official source specified in the market description (usually the official game box score or a named data provider). The settled outcome will be posted on the market page after the game and any required verification period; consult the market rules for dispute procedures and timing.