| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner -5.5 games | 44% | 44¢ | 55¢ | — | $65 | Trade → |
| Denis Shapovalov -3.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jannik Sinner -3.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jannik Sinner -7.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Denis Shapovalov -7.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Denis Shapovalov -1.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jannik Sinner -1.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Denis Shapovalov -5.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which game-spread outcome will occur in the tennis match between Denis Shapovalov and Jannik Sinner. Game-spread markets matter because they measure margin of victory in games rather than just who wins, offering a finer view of expected competitiveness.
Denis Shapovalov is known for big serves and aggressive shot-making that can produce high-variance results; Jannik Sinner is known for consistent baseline pressure and steady point construction. Their prior meetings, playing-surface histories, recent form and fitness all shape how close the match is likely to be, and different tournaments or stages (early round vs. late round) can affect incentives and energy levels.
Market odds represent the collective expectations about which game-spread bracket will occur and update as new information arrives. Use them as a real-time signal that incorporates injuries, weather, lineups, and betting flow, but cross-check with match-specific facts (surface, recent matches, official start time).
The listed close time is currently TBD; markets like this typically suspend trading at the scheduled official match start and will reflect any announced delays. Check the KALSHI event page for real-time updates and the official scheduled start time.
Each outcome corresponds to a discrete range of possible game-differential outcomes (i.e., how many more games one player wins than the other). Consult the contract description on the event page for the exact boundaries and wording of each outcome.
Settlement procedures depend on KALSHI's contract rules: if the match is not started there is often a void or refund; if play begins and a player retires, settlement typically uses the official recorded score at the time of retirement. Confirm the platform’s official settlement policy on the event page.
Check official start time, any last-minute injury or withdrawal reports, recent match lengths for both players, court surface and indoor/outdoor status, and weather or scheduling notices from the tournament — all can shift the likely game margin.
Look beyond raw win/loss: examine set scores, number of service breaks, and whether prior contests were tightly contested or lopsided, and factor in where and when those matches occurred (surface and tournament stage). Patterns such as consistently close sets suggest narrower spreads, while repeated lopsided results suggest wider spreads.