| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner wins 2-1 | 24% | 11¢ | 24¢ | — | $336 | Trade → |
| Jannik Sinner wins 2-0 | 0% | 77¢ | 81¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Denis Shapovalov wins 2-0 | 0% | 0¢ | 8¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Denis Shapovalov wins 2-1 | 0% | 0¢ | 9¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which exact set score will occur in the match between Denis Shapovalov and Jannik Sinner. Exact-score markets matter because they capture expectations about both the match winner and the likely set-by-set pattern of the contest.
Shapovalov and Sinner are distinct stylistic opponents: Shapovalov is a left‑handed, aggressive shotmaker who can produce quick, high‑variance points, while Sinner is known for heavy, consistent ball‑striking and steady baseline defense. Their prior meetings, recent form, and the tournament surface often determine whether the match is a straight‑sets result or goes the distance. Tournament round and scheduling (how many matches each has played recently) also shape likely scorelines.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregated expectations about which exact scoreline will occur and will move as new information appears (injuries, lineups, live match developments). Use the market as a dynamic indicator of changing expectations rather than a fixed forecast.
The event page currently lists the close time as TBD; typically the market will close before the match starts or at a platform‑specified time — check the KALSHI market page for the definitive close time.
This four‑outcome market is structured around the plausible exact set scores for the match format (e.g., the two possible straight‑set results and the two possible three‑set results); view the market interface for the exact labels used.
Settlement follows KALSHI’s official rules: if a withdrawal occurs before play begins, the market is typically voided or settled according to the platform’s withdrawal policy — consult KALSHI’s resolution guidelines on the event page for specifics.
Settlement uses the match result reported by the tournament’s official scorekeeper and the official match report (as recognized by the tournament organizer and referenced by KALSHI).
Monitor pre‑match warmups and injury reports, weather or court‑condition updates, who wins the opening service games and early breaks, and whether sets go to tiebreaks — these items tend to move markets for straight‑sets versus three‑set outcomes.