| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev -5.5 games | 45% | 0¢ | 99¢ | — | $10 | Trade → |
| Sebastian Baez -1.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Daniil Medvedev -3.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Daniil Medvedev -1.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sebastian Baez -5.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sebastian Baez -3.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sebastian Baez -7.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Daniil Medvedev -7.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how large the game-margin (spread) will be between Daniil Medvedev and Sebastian Baez in their match; it matters to traders and fans who want to express or hedge views on the likely closeness of the contest.
Medvedev is an established top-level player known for hard-court results, consistent serving, and baseline control; Baez is a younger Argentine with strong movement and a game that traditionally benefits from slower surfaces. Surface, recent form, and match context (round, fatigue, travel) shape expectations for how many games each player wins.
Market prices map to discrete game-margin outcomes: each outcome represents a range of possible game differences. Prices move as participants incorporate new information such as injuries, lineups, or weather into expected margins.
The event’s close is listed as TBD; check the KALSHI market page for the official close time, which is typically finalized before play starts or when the match is officially scheduled.
The eight outcomes partition the possible game-margin results into discrete ranges (for example: narrow wins, moderate margins, or decisive margins for each player); the market page shows the exact range assigned to each outcome.
A faster hard court tends to amplify Medvedev’s serve and shorten points, which can increase his expected game cushion; a slower clay court favors longer rallies and Baez’s consistency, which can compress the spread in his favor.
Late injury or illness reports, official practice/lineup confirmations, weather or scheduling changes, and real-time news about either player’s fitness or travel status are the most influential updates.
Zero volume indicates low liquidity so far; with multiple discrete outcomes, prices may be wide and more sensitive to single trades—consider monitoring for incoming volume, assess market depth, and size positions conservatively until liquidity grows.