| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev -1.5 games | 0% | 1¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Daniil Medvedev -3.5 games | 0% | 53¢ | 65¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Daniil Medvedev -5.5 games | 0% | 26¢ | 37¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Daniil Medvedev -7.5 games | 0% | 1¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alejandro Tabilo -1.5 games | 0% | 1¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alejandro Tabilo -3.5 games | 0% | 1¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alejandro Tabilo -7.5 games | 0% | 1¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alejandro Tabilo -5.5 games | 0% | 1¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which game-margin bracket will describe the final scoreline between Daniil Medvedev and Alejandro Tabilo. It matters for traders who want exposure to match competitiveness rather than simply who wins.
Daniil Medvedev is an established top-level player known for deep returns and consistency from the baseline; Alejandro Tabilo is a younger challenger with aggressive shotmaking and big-serving ability. The matchup’s dynamics depend heavily on surface, recent form, and tournament context, any of which can shift expectations for the games spread.
Market odds reflect how participants collectively price the likely game-margin outcomes; read them as the market consensus about relative likelihoods, and check the specific label for each of the eight outcomes to know which games-margin bracket it represents.
The market close is listed as TBD on the page; final closure and settlement typically align with the match’s official start and the tournament’s scoring records. Check Kalshi’s market details for the confirmed close time and settlement rules before trading.
Each of the eight outcomes corresponds to a distinct games-margin bracket (for example ranges favoring one player or the other). The precise bracket labels and which player they favor are shown on the market interface — review those labels so you know exactly what each outcome pays on settlement.
Settlement follows the platform’s official rules using the tournament’s recorded final score: retirements are settled based on the official score at the time of retirement, walkovers or cancellations are handled per Kalshi’s dispute/void procedures. Verify Kalshi’s event-specific rules for final guidance.
Key background items include each player’s recent head-to-head meetings (if any), their hard-court versus clay performance splits, serving and return statistics, physical condition coming into the match, and experience in pressure situations such as tiebreaks and deciding sets.
Announcements likely to move the games-spread market include confirmed injuries or withdrawals, late changes to court assignment or start time, official practice reports indicating limited movement, and surprising lineup or coaching news — all of which change expectations for how close the match will be.