| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles F wins by over 1.5 goals | 52% | 51¢ | 52¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Los Angeles F wins by over 2.5 goals | 31% | 29¢ | 30¢ | — | $473 | Trade → |
| Dallas wins by over 2.5 goals | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $320 | Trade → |
| Dallas wins by over 1.5 goals | 4% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $117 | Trade → |
This market lets traders bet on which point-spread bracket the final margin of the Dallas at Los Angeles matchup will fall into; it matters because spreads summarize real-time market expectations about how close the game will be.
The contract covers a head-to-head game between Dallas (visiting) and the Los Angeles team (home), with four discrete spread outcomes offered instead of a single continuous line. Historical matchups, roster stability, and home-field conditions often shape market pricing; because KALSHI lists multiple spread buckets, participants trade around expected margins and react to news up to the market close.
Market prices reflect the collective judgment about which spread bucket the final official margin will land in; prices move as new information arrives but are not guarantees of a specific result.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific, predefined range of final margin-of-victory for the game (for either team). The market page lists those ranges; the outcome that matches the official final margin is the winning bucket.
The market close time is set by the listing and may be updated on the event page; typically the market closes shortly before kickoff or at a published cutoff — check the event page for the current, authoritative close time.
Resolution uses the official final score after any overtime periods; the resulting margin after overtime is compared to the spread buckets to determine the winning outcome.
Late roster changes typically trigger rapid repricing as traders update expectations for scoring margin; larger impacts on key offensive or defensive starters usually produce bigger shifts between the spread buckets.
The market resolves based on the designated official league or venue source listed in the market rules; if corrections occur, settlement follows the operator's published dispute and verification procedures and may be delayed until the official result is final.