| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami -2.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Miami -1.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Colorado -1.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Colorado -2.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to pick which run-differential bracket will describe the game between Colorado and Miami after the first five innings. It matters because early-game performance is driven by starting pitchers and initial bullpen usage, offering a distinct informational edge compared with full-game markets.
The market covers only the first five innings of the scheduled Colorado vs Miami game and offers four discrete spread outcomes; the market page lists the exact numerical brackets. First-five markets isolate early-game dynamics and typically respond quickly to starting-pitcher announcements, lineup changes, and weather or stadium conditions. Historical first-five splits for the teams and the announced pitchers provide useful context but are not determinative.
Market prices represent collective trader expectations about which spread bracket will hold after five innings; price changes reflect new information (pitching news, scratches, weather). Use prices as a real-time sentiment indicator rather than a fixed forecast.
The market settles on the official run differential after the first five completed innings; only events from innings 1–5 are counted and extra-inning play does not affect settlement.
Each outcome corresponds to a defined run-differential bracket for the first five innings (two favor Colorado at different margins and two favor Miami at different margins). The event page shows the exact numerical thresholds for each bracket.
Starting pitcher identity and late scratches are primary drivers of price movement because they change expected run scoring over the first five innings; traders typically reprice once pitchers or official lineups are confirmed.
Settlement in the event of a delay, suspension, or cancellation depends on the exchange’s rules for this market; such markets are commonly voided or settled according to an official-shortened-game policy. Check the KALSHI event page and rules for the precise settlement procedure.
Trading usually intensifies in the hours and minutes before the scheduled first pitch as starting-pitcher news, official lineups, and weather updates arrive; significant in-game news or scratches can also trigger late movement prior to market close.