| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia wins by over 2.5 runs | 0% | 1¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Canada wins by over 2.5 runs | 0% | 1¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Colombia wins by over 1.5 runs | 0% | 1¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Canada wins by over 1.5 runs | 0% | 1¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the run differential between Colombia and Canada will shape up after the first five innings of their game. It matters for traders who want to express a view specifically on early-game performance and starting-pitcher impact rather than the full-game result.
Colombia and Canada meet on the international baseball stage with different player pools and recent development trajectories; Canada frequently draws from North American professional systems while Colombia has produced increasingly competitive players through domestic and regional pathways. In single-game markets like a first-five-innings spread, team selection and the announced starting pitchers typically matter more than longer-term form.
Market prices reflect the consensus view of traders about how the first five innings will play out and will move as lineups, starters, weather, and other pregame information arrive. Use those prices as indicators of collective expectations, and re-evaluate positions as new information arrives before first pitch.
The precise close time is set by the exchange and will typically be at or shortly before the game’s first pitch; because this market is listed as closing TBD, check the KALSHI contract page for the confirmed trading cutoff once the game time is finalized.
The four outcomes correspond to the specific spread thresholds and sides that KALSHI configured for this contract (for example, different run-differential buckets or each team covering a spread); consult the contract description on the event page to see the exact numeric breaks and which outcome maps to each spread interval.
Resolution follows the exchange’s settlement rules stated on the contract: many first-five-innings markets require five completed innings to determine the spread, while others reference the official scorer or may void; check the KALSHI contract terms for the definitive resolution procedure for this event.
Early runs and big innings (home runs, multi-run rallies), an unusually quick removal of a starter, defensive errors, or a weather delay that shortens play will all have outsized effects on a first-five-innings spread because the market focuses only on that initial segment of the game.
Announced starters and any late changes are critical inputs: a stronger-than-expected starter typically favors the team’s side of the spread for the first five innings, while a scratch or an unexpected bullpen start can materially alter expected scoring in that window—monitor official lineup and starter announcements closely and adjust positions before trading closes.