| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| A new location in Illinois | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iowa | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Do not relocate or announce a relocation | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the Chicago professional football team will relocate and to which outcome it resolves. It matters because relocation would affect local jobs, public finances tied to stadiums, fans, and league geography.
Relocation decisions are typically shaped by owner plans, stadium leases or new stadium proposals, municipal incentives, and league approval; recent NFL history shows owners sometimes move teams when stadium or market conditions change. Chicago-area teams have historically drawn strong local support, but long-term stadium deals, ownership changes, or attractive offers from other cities can alter that balance.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregated expectations based on public information and will move as news, negotiations, or official filings occur. Use market movement alongside direct reporting (team statements, league votes, municipal actions) to interpret near-term developments.
The market is listed with several mutually exclusive outcomes that specify either remaining in Chicago or relocating to particular destinations; consult the market page for the exact outcome labels and destination names before trading.
Resolution is governed by the market's official rules and resolution text on KALSHI; typically an event counts when an authorized, documented change of the team's official home city or venue is recognized according to those resolution criteria, so check the event description for any date or season deadlines.
An official relocation normally requires action by the team ownership and formal approval from the league (e.g., an owners’ vote or league office confirmation); municipal approvals and finalized stadium agreements affect feasibility but league approval is usually the decisive legal step.
Concrete stadium financing commitments, signed lease extensions, or approved public incentives typically reduce relocation likelihood, while failed negotiations or no viable stadium plan increase it; the market reacts quickly to such announcements as they change the practical feasibility of a move.
A sale does not automatically equal a sanctioned relocation; it increases the probability of a move if the buyer publicly intends to relocate and secures league approval or necessary deals, but relocation must still meet the market's resolution criteria to count.