| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte | 60% | 55¢ | 59¢ | — | $240 | Trade → |
| Tie | 4% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $23 | Trade → |
| Phoenix | 41% | 33¢ | 41¢ | — | $4 | Trade → |
This market asks which team — Charlotte, Phoenix, or a tie — will be leading at the end of the first half of the game. It matters because first-half outcomes isolate early-game performance and respond quickly to lineup, coaching and pace differences.
First-half leads are influenced by matchups, starting lineups, and the teams' opening strategies rather than full-game adjustments. Historical head-to-heads and seasonal form can inform expectations, but short-term factors such as rotations, rest, and injury reports often drive first-half results more strongly than full-game trends.
Market prices reflect the crowd’s evolving view of who will be ahead at halftime and will move with new information (starter confirmations, injuries, in-game developments). Interpret prices as a dynamic signal of market sentiment about the first half specifically, not the final result.
The market will close before the game begins (check the platform for the exact cutoff). It resolves based on the official halftime score as recorded by the league: the team leading at the end of the second quarter wins the corresponding outcome; a tied halftime score results in the Tie outcome.
Outcome options correspond to which team is ahead at the official end of the first half: Charlotte leading, Phoenix leading, or a Tie if the scoreboard is even at halftime.
Late lineup changes and injury reports are highly relevant because starters and early rotations determine opening possessions; markets typically react quickly to such news, so consider timing and reliability of sources when evaluating moves.
No — overtime occurs after regulation and does not change the official halftime result. The first-half outcome is determined solely by the score at the end of the second quarter.
Resolution in those cases follows the platform’s event cancellation and force‑majeure rules. Typically, if the first half is not completed or the game does not start, the market may be voided or resolved per the exchange’s stated policy—check KALSHI’s rules for definitive guidance.