| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina wins by over 1.5 goals | 45% | 44¢ | 45¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Calgary wins by over 1.5 goals | 16% | 16¢ | 17¢ | — | $418 | Trade → |
| Calgary wins by over 2.5 goals | 9% | 8¢ | 10¢ | — | $280 | Trade → |
| Carolina wins by over 2.5 goals | 29% | 29¢ | 31¢ | — | $59 | Trade → |
This market lets traders take positions on the point spread margin between Carolina and Calgary in their upcoming matchup. It matters because the spread encapsulates collective expectations about relative team strength, key starters, and game conditions beyond just which team wins.
Carolina and Calgary are NHL clubs whose matchup outcomes depend on lineup choices, goaltending, travel, and recent form rather than long-term trends alone. Head-to-head history can offer context, but single-game spreads often reflect short-term factors like injuries, rest, and tactical matchups. On KALSHI, this event aggregates trader views into tradable outcomes that move as new information appears.
Market prices translate traders' consensus about how large the margin of victory will be; they move when new information (starter news, injuries, travel updates) arrives. Use prices to understand market-implied expectations, not as guarantees of final results.
The four outcomes represent different spread ranges or margin buckets for this specific game; the precise breakpoints are defined on the market contract page. Check the event page to see the exact numeric ranges and settlement rules for each outcome.
The market's official close time is listed as TBD on the event page. On KALSHI, similar sports spread markets typically close at or just before puck drop, but final close time for this event will be posted on the market contract — verify before trading.
Settlement convention (regulation-only versus final including OT/SO) is specified in the contract terms for this market. Many hockey spread contracts use regulation scores, while others include overtime and shootout — confirm the settlement rule on the market page.
Starter and lineup news are high-impact and often prompt rapid price movement because they materially change expected margin. Traders tend to update positions quickly after official announcements, so expect volatility around verified lineup releases.
Yes — travel distance, time-zone changes, and schedule density (e.g., road trips, back-to-backs) can increase fatigue risk for the visiting team and influence the spread. Market participants often weigh these factors alongside rest days and recent travel history when pricing this event.