| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 18.5 games | 57% | 51¢ | 57¢ | — | $783 | Trade → |
| Over 22.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 30.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 28.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 24.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 16.5 games | 0% | 63¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 32.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 20.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 90¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 26.5 games | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the total number of games played in the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Arthur Rinderknech. It matters because total-games markets capture expectations about match length and competitiveness, which differ from simple winner markets.
Carlos Alcaraz is a top-ranked baseliner known for heavy ball and strong returning, while Arthur Rinderknech is a tall, big-serving player who can produce free points and tiebreak scenarios. The market on KALSHI currently lists nine distinct total-games outcomes and has recorded $424 in trading volume; the market close time is listed as TBD and will be set relative to the match start.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations about which total-games range will occur and will move as pre-match news arrives (draw position, injuries, weather). Treat prices as real-time signals that update with new information rather than fixed forecasts.
Total Games refers to the sum of all completed games in the match as recorded by the official tournament scorer. Specific settlement treatment of tiebreaks and incomplete matches follows the market’s official rules, so check the contract details on the event page.
If the match is best-of-three (common on the ATP Tour) the total possible games are lower than in a best-of-five match (typical in Grand Slams). Knowing the format sets the upper bound for plausible total-game ranges and changes how many long-set scenarios are possible.
Settlement depends on the official final score as recorded by the tournament and the market’s rules. Often a retirement is settled on the official completed-game total; a walkover or cancelled match may lead to voiding the market per exchange policy—check the event-specific settlement terms.
Surface speed and weather change rally lengths and break probabilities: slower surfaces and calm conditions typically produce longer rallies and more breakpoint activity, which can increase total games, while fast surfaces and windy conditions tend to favor big servers and quicker holds.
The market close is listed as TBD; typically these markets close shortly before the match’s first serve. You can monitor the event page for live updates, volume changes, and the official closure timestamp once the organizer posts it.