| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Submission | 21% | 7¢ | 21¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 32% | 30¢ | 32¢ | — | $912 | Trade → |
| Decision | 60% | 42¢ | 60¢ | — | $352 | Trade → |
| Draw | 5% | 1¢ | 4¢ | — | $93 | Trade → |
This market asks which method will produce the official finish of the Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder fight. It matters because the method reflects both fighters’ strengths and shapes in-fight tactics and betting sentiment.
This is a matchup between two high-level middleweight competitors with complementary strengths that can produce different finish types: strikes, submissions, or a decision. Both fighters have records showing they can either grind out control or seek finishes, so stylistic matchup and recent form matter. The event’s ruleset and referee environment also influence how aggressively finishes are pursued.
Market prices are the market’s collective view on the likelihood of each finish method and will move as new information (injuries, weights, camp reports) arrives. Treat odds as a dynamic summary of expectations, not a prediction guarantee.
A submission finish will settle the market outcome labeled for submissions; check the market labels to confirm how submissions are defined for this listing.
A fight that goes the distance and is decided by judges will settle to the outcome corresponding to a decision finish as defined by the market.
Settlement depends on the exchange’s rules: organizers may void the market, postpone settlement until a replacement is confirmed, or settle based on the official event status — check the KALSHI rulebook and official event notices.
Key aspects are each fighter’s recent submission attempts and success rate, ability to secure takedowns or reversals, control time on the mat, and transitions to submission positions under pressure.
These outcomes are typically ruled and settled according to the market operator’s policy: some markets void on no-contest or accidental foul stoppages, others apply a designated 'no-contest' settlement — consult the official settlement rules for this event.