| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil -2.5 first 5 innings | 53% | 0¢ | 53¢ | — | $18 | Trade → |
| Mexico -2.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mexico -1.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Brazil -1.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market predicts the run differential between Brazil and Mexico over the first five innings of their matchup; it matters because early-game performance is often driven by starting pitchers and initial offensive strategy, which can differ from full-game dynamics.
Brazil and Mexico meet as national baseball programs with different development histories: Mexico has a longer professional tradition and deeper pitching resources, while Brazil has been improving through increased international exposure. In tournaments and friendlies, early-inning outcomes can swing quickly based on starting rotations, lineup choices, and small-sample randomness.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders about which team will lead (or by how much) after five innings and will move when new information arrives; use them as a real-time signal that updates with lineup announcements, pitching changes, and other news.
It measures the run differential between the two teams at the official end of the fifth inning; resolution depends on the official score at that point and on the specific outcome buckets listed on the market page.
This market is split into four mutually exclusive outcomes representing different ranges or directions of the first-five-innings run differential; consult the market contract page for the precise labels and boundaries for each outcome.
The official close time is set by KALSHI and will be posted on the market page; for first-five-innings markets trading commonly closes at or just before first pitch to prevent intra-game informational arbitrage.
Announcements that matter most are the starting pitchers for both teams, any late scratches to top hitters, confirmed batting orders, and official injury updates—each can materially change expectations for early-inning scoring.
Resolution follows KALSHI's event and force-majeure rules: if the first five innings are not completed as defined by the exchange, the market may be voided or resolved based on the official scorer and the exchange's published policies—check the market terms for the authoritative rule.