| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 42% | 25¢ | 44¢ | — | $120 | Trade → |
| San Antonio | 78% | 37¢ | 56¢ | — | $9 | Trade → |
| Tie | 0% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which team — Boston or San Antonio — will be leading at the end of the first half of their matchup (with a separate outcome for a tied halftime). It matters because halftime leadership captures early-game dynamics and offers a focused way to trade on the matchup independent of the final result.
A "First Half Winner" market resolves based on the official score at the end of the second quarter rather than the final buzzer. Outcomes are influenced by game-specific factors such as starting lineups, coaching plans for the opening quarters, and early rotations. Historical head-to-head trends and stylistic matchups (pace, defensive schemes) provide context but do not guarantee the halftime result.
Market prices reflect the collective view of traders about which team will lead at halftime; treat prices as the market consensus at a point in time rather than definitive predictions. Low liquidity can make prices volatile, so consider both market quotes and external game information when making decisions.
The outcome is determined by the official score at the end of the first half (end of the second quarter). If one team leads at that moment they win the corresponding outcome; if the score is tied, the Tie outcome is the winner. Settlement uses the league's official scorekeeping.
Close/lock timing is set by the market operator and may be listed on the market page; many similar markets lock at or shortly before the game tipoff. Because this market's close is listed as TBD, check the KALSHI market page for the official lock time prior to trading.
Settlement is based solely on the official halftime score regardless of injuries, ejections, or other in-game events that occur before halftime. Only if the game fails to reach an official halftime (e.g., abandoned before the end of the second quarter) would the operator apply contingency rules, which can include voiding or otherwise resolving the market according to their terms.
A total volume of $13 indicates low liquidity on this market; prices may swing substantially from small trades and may not reflect a broad consensus. Treat quotes as potentially fragile and combine them with external information (lineups, news, matchup data) before committing significant capital.
Resolution in such cases follows the market operator's rules: common outcomes include voiding the market and returning funds or applying a predetermined settlement policy. Always consult the specific event rules on the market page to understand how unusual circumstances are handled for this market.