| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston wins the 1H by over 1.5 points | 50% | 44¢ | 49¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Boston wins the 1H by over 4.5 points | 41% | 23¢ | 41¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Milwaukee wins the 1H by over 2.5 points | 44% | 35¢ | 44¢ | — | $526 | Trade → |
| Boston wins the 1H by over 10.5 points | 23% | 4¢ | 38¢ | — | $211 | Trade → |
| Milwaukee wins the 1H by over 8.5 points | 26% | 2¢ | 38¢ | — | $54 | Trade → |
| Boston wins the 1H by over 7.5 points | 32% | 10¢ | 43¢ | — | $40 | Trade → |
| Milwaukee wins the 1H by over 17.5 points | 24% | 0¢ | 24¢ | — | $35 | Trade → |
| Milwaukee wins the 1H by over 5.5 points | 18% | 13¢ | 48¢ | — | $33 | Trade → |
| Milwaukee wins the 1H by over 20.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 13¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Milwaukee wins the 1H by over 11.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 48¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Milwaukee wins the 1H by over 14.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 36¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the first-half point spread will resolve between Boston and Milwaukee in a given game — effectively which team will lead by how many points at halftime. First-half markets matter because they isolate early-game dynamics and let traders express views on starters, pace, and initial coaching strategy.
Boston and Milwaukee are typically shaped by contrasting styles: Boston often emphasizes structured offense and team defense, while Milwaukee relies on star-driven creation and transition scoring. First-half spreads can diverge from full-game expectations because starters log most early minutes, rotations are shorter, and coaches may deploy different strategies to set a tone.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about the halftime margin; higher-priced outcomes indicate less market demand, lower-priced outcomes indicate more demand. Prices update in real time to incorporate news (injuries, scratches, lineup changes) and in-game developments while trading remains open.
Closing time is set by the platform; first-half markets commonly stop accepting new trades at or shortly before the opening tip. Check the event page on KALSHI for the precise close time for this contract.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific first-half margin or spread interval (which team leads and by how many points) at halftime. The event page lists the exact labels for each outcome so you can see the point ranges being traded.
Availability of the teams' primary starters and on-ball creators has the biggest impact — for example, the leading scorers and primary ball-handlers and any key defensive anchors. Late scratches, rest decisions, or minute restrictions for those players tend to move first-half lines more than bench changes.
Early fouls can force starter substitutions and alter matchups, changing scoring balance and defensive intensity; coaches' early tactical adjustments and unexpectedly long bench stints also shift expectations. Markets react quickly to these developments because they materially affect the likely halftime margin.
Yes. Short-term factors like travel fatigue or a back-to-back can reduce starters' early energy or lead coaches to limit minutes, which has a larger proportional effect on the first half than the full game. Home-court energy can also create a stronger immediate impact on the opening minutes and therefore on first-half expectations.