| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston wins first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cincinnati wins first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which team — Boston or Cincinnati — will be leading after the first five innings of their game (or whether the score will be tied). It matters because first-five outcomes isolate starting-pitcher and early-lineup performance independent of late-inning bullpen and closer effects.
First-five markets focus on the initial game environment: the scheduled starting pitchers, projected lineups, park dimensions, and weather can have outsized influence compared with full-game markets. Historical head-to-head tendencies and each club’s typical first-five run production or starter usage provide useful background context. Because the market closes before or at game start, pregame news about scratches or lineup changes is especially relevant.
Market prices are an aggregate, real-time expression of traders’ expectations about who will lead after five innings; interpret them as a dynamic signal that will move with new information rather than a fixed prediction.
The three outcomes are: Boston leading after five innings, Cincinnati leading after five innings, or the score tied after five innings; the result is locked at the completion of the fifth inning per the platform's official rules.
First-five markets usually lock at or shortly before the first pitch; 'Closes: TBD' means the final lock time will be posted by the platform, so check the market page close to game time for the official cutoff.
Starter announcements are high-impact because the first five innings are usually determined by starters; a confirmed ace or a last-minute scratch can meaningfully change expectations for which team will be ahead after five.
The market outcome is determined after completion of both the top and bottom of the fifth inning; if the game is still tied at that point the 'tied' outcome applies, otherwise the team ahead after the bottom of the fifth is the winner for this market.
No — only runs scored through the completion of the fifth inning count for this market; scoring in the sixth inning and later does not change the first-five outcome, though pregame and in-progress news before lock can affect trading prices.