A's vs Toronto: Total Bases

Starting pitchers are one of the largest drivers: a pitcher who induces weak contact and strikes out many batters will generally lower expected total bases, while a contact-heavy or homer-prone starter will raise it. Traders typically react quickly when starters are announced or changed.

Settlement is based on the official MLB game box score and the official scorer’s record of hits — total bases are computed from hits (single=1, double=2, triple=3, home run=4). Plays ruled errors or fielder’s choice do not count as hits and therefore do not add to total bases.

Resolution follows the marketplace’s published settlement rules for postponements and suspensions; typically the official final box score after the game or resumed game is used, but markets can be voided or settled differently if the game is not completed per those rules—check the market page for the event’s specific terms.

They can move it materially: a strong outfield wind blowing out or an unusually warm, dry night that favors the flight of the ball increases the chance of extra-base hits, while cold, rainy, or wind-against conditions suppress power and reduce expected total bases.

The most important windows are when starting pitchers are officially announced, roughly an hour before first pitch when lineups are released, and in the final hour before first pitch for late scratches or weather changes. In-game substitutions, rain delays, and unexpected pitcher changes also move expectations if the market remains open.