| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Fils | 48% | 44¢ | 48¢ | — | $1 | Trade → |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | 0% | 50¢ | 65¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which player — Arthur Fils or Felix Auger-Aliassime — will win the first set of their matchup. First-set markets matter because they isolate the opening dynamics of a match and allow traders to focus on short-term factors like serve and early momentum.
Both players are established ATP tour competitors with contrasting profiles: Fils is a younger, aggressive baseliner known for quick starts, while Auger-Aliassime brings experience, a big serve, and power from the back of the court. Their recent form, surface preferences, and any prior meetings can shape expectations for the opening set. Tournament conditions (surface speed, indoor vs outdoor, ball type) and scheduling (recovery time since prior matches) also provide important context.
Market prices reflect the collective view of traders about which player will take the first set and update as new information arrives. Use price moves as signals of changing information — pre-match news and in-match events can both shift market consensus quickly.
It settles to the player who is recorded as the winner of the first set in the official match score; a completed tiebreak counts as deciding the set. If the first set is not completed, settlement will follow the exchange's stated resolution policy.
Head-to-head history can reveal matchup patterns, such as which player starts aggressively or struggles early, but small sample sizes and differing court conditions limit its predictive weight; combine it with current-form and surface-specific data.
A pre-match withdrawal or confirmed injury typically triggers a sharp market reaction and may lead to voiding or settlement according to the exchange's rules; any public injury news before the first set begins will be incorporated by traders immediately.
Early service breaks, a player struggling with first serves, medical timeouts, visible fatigue, or a dominant early tiebreak performance are the fastest in-match events to shift expectations for the first set.
TBD means the final close time hasn’t been published yet; typically these markets close at or shortly before the start of the match or the first set, but check the exchange’s event page or notifications for the official closing time once it is announced.