| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Echavarria | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $368K | Trade → |
| Daniel Berger | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $326K | Trade → |
| Scottie Scheffler | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $272K | Trade → |
| Rory McIlroy | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $234K | Trade → |
| Ludvig Aberg | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $158K | Trade → |
| Collin Morikawa | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $114K | Trade → |
| Chris Gotterup | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $111K | Trade → |
| Min Woo Lee | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $94K | Trade → |
| Cameron Young | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $92K | Trade → |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $91K | Trade → |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $82K | Trade → |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $81K | Trade → |
| Shane Lowry | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $81K | Trade → |
| Jake Knapp | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $79K | Trade → |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $73K | Trade → |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $65K | Trade → |
| Jordan Spieth | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $59K | Trade → |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $58K | Trade → |
| Viktor Hovland | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $57K | Trade → |
| Justin Rose | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $56K | Trade → |
| Sepp Straka | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $52K | Trade → |
| Justin Thomas | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $49K | Trade → |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $47K | Trade → |
| Rickie Fowler | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $39K | Trade → |
| Sahith Theegala | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $38K | Trade → |
| Keith Mitchell | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $38K | Trade → |
| Si Woo Kim | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $35K | Trade → |
| Ben Griffin | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $33K | Trade → |
| Akshay Bhatia | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $33K | Trade → |
| Joel Dahmen | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $32K | Trade → |
| Xander Schauffele | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $31K | Trade → |
| Chris Kirk | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $31K | Trade → |
| Austin Smotherman | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $31K | Trade → |
| Russell Henley | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $29K | Trade → |
| Pierceson Coody | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $29K | Trade → |
| Sungjae Im | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $28K | Trade → |
| Ryan Fox | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| Max Greyserman | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| Corey Conners | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| Tom Hoge | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| Harris English | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $20K | Trade → |
| Taylor Moore | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| Adam Scott | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| Sam Burns | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| Michael Kim | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| Kurt Kitayama | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| Patrick Cantlay | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| Maverick McNealy | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Keegan Bradley | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| Robert MacIntyre | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| Billy Horschel | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Denny McCarthy | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Jason Day | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Nick Taylor | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Andrew Putnam | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Andrew Novak | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Matthew McCarty | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Ryan Gerard | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Bud Cauley | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Patrick Rodgers | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Brian Campbell | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Harry Hall | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| J.T. Poston | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Alex Noren | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Sam Stevens | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Lucas Glover | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Hao-Tong Li | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Brian Harman | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Daniel Bennett | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Taylor Pendrith | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $470 | Trade → |
| J.J. Spaun | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $438 | Trade → |
This market tracks which professional golfer will hold the lowest score at the conclusion of the first round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. It provides a way for participants to speculate on early-round performance at one of the PGA Tour's most prestigious events.
Held annually at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, the Arnold Palmer Invitational is a 'Signature Event' known for its challenging layout and fast greens. Historically, the course rewards elite ball-striking and composure, as the firm conditions often create significant separation between players early in the tournament. Early starters often face different course conditions, such as calmer winds or softer greens, which can heavily influence the initial leaderboard.
The market prices reflect the collective anticipation of which players possess the current form and historical course affinity to shoot the lowest score during the opening 18 holes.
The winner is the player (or players) who records the lowest stroke total at the conclusion of all players finishing their first 18 holes.
In most prediction market formats, dead-heat rules apply, meaning the payout is divided among all players tied for the lead.
Usually, if a player starts but does not complete their round, they are considered ineligible for the lead, though specific house rules on this should be verified.
Bay Hill is notoriously difficult; players who prioritize accuracy off the tee and distance control on approach shots often find early success before the course firms up over the weekend.
Yes, because significant wind or rain can create a 'wave' advantage, where golfers playing in the morning or afternoon face markedly different scoring conditions.