| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $119K | Trade → |
| Rory McIlroy | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $72K | Resolved |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $69K | Trade → |
| Max Greyserman | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $62K | Trade → |
| Daniel Bennett | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $59K | Trade → |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $57K | Trade → |
| Collin Morikawa | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $54K | Trade → |
| Jordan Spieth | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $45K | Trade → |
| Viktor Hovland | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $43K | Trade → |
| Jake Knapp | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $34K | Resolved |
| Akshay Bhatia | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $30K | Trade → |
| Sepp Straka | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $26K | Trade → |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| Min Woo Lee | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| Si Woo Kim | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| Xander Schauffele | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| Chris Gotterup | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 18% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| Sahith Theegala | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| Ryan Fox | 16% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| Russell Henley | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| Chris Kirk | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| Corey Conners | 7% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| Justin Thomas | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Resolved |
| Shane Lowry | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $20K | Resolved |
| Patrick Cantlay | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $20K | Resolved |
| Alex Noren | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $20K | Trade → |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $20K | Trade → |
| Brian Campbell | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Resolved |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| Michael Kim | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| Taylor Pendrith | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| Joel Dahmen | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $17K | Resolved |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $16K | Resolved |
| Ludvig Aberg | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| Rickie Fowler | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| Andrew Putnam | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| Matthew McCarty | 9% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Adam Scott | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Billy Horschel | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| Pierceson Coody | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Resolved |
| Bud Cauley | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Sungjae Im | 4% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Resolved |
| Daniel Berger | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Austin Smotherman | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Resolved |
| Brian Harman | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Kurt Kitayama | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Justin Rose | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Resolved |
| Taylor Moore | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Harry Hall | 87% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Keith Mitchell | 35% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Jason Day | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Resolved |
| Robert MacIntyre | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Cameron Young | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Andrew Novak | 5% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| J.J. Spaun | 11% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Resolved |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 88% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Tom Hoge | 7% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Resolved |
| Harris English | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Maverick McNealy | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Keegan Bradley | 11% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Resolved |
| Ben Griffin | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Resolved |
| Ryan Gerard | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Resolved |
| Lucas Glover | 4% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Nick Taylor | 23% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Hao-Tong Li | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Resolved |
| Patrick Rodgers | 18% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Sam Burns | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Resolved |
| Sam Stevens | 13% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $549 | Resolved |
| J.T. Poston | 6% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $86 | Resolved |
| Denny McCarthy | 22% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $60 | Resolved |
This market tracks whether a specific professional golfer will finish in the Top 20 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. It serves as a sentiment gauge for player performance in one of the PGA Tour's most prestigious signature events.
Held at the iconic Bay Hill Club & Lodge, the Arnold Palmer Invitational is known for its rigorous layout, firm greens, and challenging conditions that typically reward elite ball-strikers. As a designated event with a limited field and elevated purse, it consistently attracts the top-ranked players in the Official World Golf Ranking. Historical winners often possess a strong short game and the ability to navigate the demanding wind patterns characteristic of the Florida swing.
The market price represents the collective expectation of a player's ability to navigate the tournament's four rounds and place among the top 20 finishers in the final leaderboard.
A Top 20 finish includes any player who places in positions 1 through 20, including ties, based on the official tournament leaderboard at the conclusion of the final round.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational's status as a signature event ensures a smaller, elite field, making the competition for a Top 20 spot significantly more intense than in standard tour events.
If a player withdraws or is disqualified before completing all rounds, they are generally not considered to have placed in the Top 20.
The market remains open and valid until the official tournament results are finalized, even if weather delays push the final round into an extra day.
Bay Hill features thick rough and fast, undulating greens that favor strategic play and precision, which often prevents lower-ranked players from breaking into the Top 20.