| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Fleetwood | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Daniel Bennett | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Brian Campbell | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Resolved |
| Scottie Scheffler | 98% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 93% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Sungjae Im | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Resolved |
| Andrew Novak | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Keegan Bradley | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Resolved |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Ben Griffin | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Resolved |
| Justin Thomas | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Resolved |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Shane Lowry | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Resolved |
| Ryan Gerard | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Resolved |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 74% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Austin Smotherman | 87% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Jason Day | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Resolved |
| Si Woo Kim | 94% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Joel Dahmen | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Resolved |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Taylor Moore | 96% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Jake Knapp | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Resolved |
| Pierceson Coody | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Resolved |
| Jordan Spieth | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 98% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Tom Hoge | 44% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $958 | Resolved |
| Lucas Glover | 60% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $899 | Trade → |
| Harris English | 89% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $816 | Trade → |
| Collin Morikawa | 95% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $796 | Trade → |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $677 | Resolved |
| Alex Noren | 86% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $650 | Trade → |
| Ludvig Aberg | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $640 | Trade → |
| Harry Hall | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $555 | Trade → |
| Andrew Putnam | 58% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $476 | Trade → |
| J.J. Spaun | 5% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $464 | Resolved |
| Chris Gotterup | 80% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $457 | Trade → |
| Cameron Young | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $438 | Trade → |
| Daniel Berger | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $434 | Trade → |
| Viktor Hovland | 73% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $423 | Trade → |
| Corey Conners | 78% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $420 | Trade → |
| Brian Harman | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $409 | Trade → |
| Bud Cauley | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $404 | Trade → |
| Akshay Bhatia | 35% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $394 | Trade → |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 72% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $388 | Trade → |
| Michael Kim | 44% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $386 | Trade → |
| Taylor Pendrith | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $379 | Trade → |
| Patrick Rodgers | 98% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $377 | Trade → |
| Ryan Fox | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $367 | Trade → |
| Sepp Straka | 84% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $362 | Trade → |
| Min Woo Lee | 67% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $325 | Trade → |
| Rory McIlroy | 97% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $290 | Trade → |
| Billy Horschel | 85% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $259 | Trade → |
| Rickie Fowler | 80% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $251 | Trade → |
| Xander Schauffele | 98% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $232 | Trade → |
| Adam Scott | 81% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $208 | Trade → |
| Max Greyserman | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $208 | Trade → |
| J.T. Poston | 43% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $185 | Resolved |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $180 | Trade → |
| Chris Kirk | 74% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $179 | Trade → |
| Robert MacIntyre | 70% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $142 | Trade → |
| Sam Burns | 16% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $116 | Resolved |
| Russell Henley | 84% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $85 | Trade → |
| Patrick Cantlay | 73% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $75 | Resolved |
| Kurt Kitayama | 81% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $53 | Trade → |
| Keith Mitchell | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $38 | Trade → |
| Sahith Theegala | 73% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $32 | Trade → |
| Matthew McCarty | 41% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $12 | Trade → |
| Justin Rose | 78% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7 | Resolved |
| Hao-Tong Li | 21% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2 | Resolved |
| Nick Taylor | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maverick McNealy | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sam Stevens | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Denny McCarthy | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
This prediction market asks whether individual entrants in the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard will make the tournament cut and thus play the weekend rounds. It matters because making the cut determines who competes for the title, affects player earnings and rankings, and is a common short-term event for market trading.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is a long-established PGA Tour event held at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, named for and associated with Arnold Palmer. The course is known for a demanding layout and usually attracts a strong field, so performance at this event is often influenced by course familiarity and early-season form. The market focuses specifically on the 36-hole cut that narrows the field for the final two rounds.
Prediction market prices represent the collective expectations of traders about which players will continue to the weekend; prices move as new information arrives. Use price changes to gauge how factors like tee times, weather forecasts, and last-minute withdrawals are affecting perceived chances of making the cut.
It means the player remains in the tournament after the official cut is applied following the designated number of rounds (the tournament’s official rule) and is eligible to play the remaining weekend rounds and earn final placement.
The market resolves based on the tournament’s official results: whether the player is listed as making the cut in the event’s final official scoring as published by the tournament or governing body.
Settlement occurs after the tournament publishes its official cut result and finalized scoring for the round after which the cut is applied; exact timing depends on when the event’s official scores are certified.
Key movers include evolving weather forecasts for the first two rounds, official pairings and tee times, last-minute withdrawals or medical notices, and real-time scoring from round one and two that change perceived cut-line dynamics.
If a player withdraws or does not start, the market will follow the event’s official entry and withdrawal records for resolution; platform-specific rules may determine whether positions are voided or treated as the player not making the cut, so check the market terms for this event.