| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akshay Bhatia | 14% | 0¢ | 20¢ | — | $51K | Trade → |
| Cameron Young | 1% | 0¢ | 20¢ | — | $50K | Trade → |
| Daniel Berger | 99% | 63¢ | 100¢ | — | $42K | Trade → |
| Scottie Scheffler | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Collin Morikawa | 2% | 0¢ | 20¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Ludvig Aberg | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Sepp Straka | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Sahith Theegala | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Chris Gotterup | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Rickie Fowler | 2% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Xander Schauffele | 2% | 0¢ | 13¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Austin Smotherman | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $598 | Resolved |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $505 | Trade → |
| Russell Henley | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $215 | Trade → |
| Rory McIlroy | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $126 | Resolved |
| Daniel Bennett | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $93 | Trade → |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $81 | Trade → |
| Jordan Spieth | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3 | Trade → |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3 | Trade → |
| Nick Taylor | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3 | Trade → |
| Taylor Pendrith | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3 | Trade → |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3 | Trade → |
| Justin Thomas | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Andrew Putnam | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sungjae Im | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Robert MacIntyre | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kurt Kitayama | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jake Knapp | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ryan Fox | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Keith Mitchell | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Harry Hall | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chris Kirk | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Brian Harman | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Viktor Hovland | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Si Woo Kim | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Harris English | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Billy Horschel | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Brian Campbell | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alex Noren | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Andrew Novak | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Corey Conners | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ben Griffin | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tom Hoge | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| J.J. Spaun | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Denny McCarthy | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Justin Rose | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Pierceson Coody | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sam Burns | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hao-Tong Li | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jason Day | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| J.T. Poston | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Patrick Cantlay | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sam Stevens | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Michael Kim | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Joel Dahmen | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matthew McCarty | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Patrick Rodgers | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Max Greyserman | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Keegan Bradley | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ryan Gerard | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Shane Lowry | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maverick McNealy | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lucas Glover | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Min Woo Lee | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Taylor Moore | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Adam Scott | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bud Cauley | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which golfer will be the leader at the end of round 3 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. It matters because the round-3 leader determines weekend positioning and is closely watched by bettors and analysts for momentum into the final round.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is a PGA Tour event played at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, named for Arnold Palmer and typically drawing a strong field. Historical context: Bay Hill is a risk-reward par-71 setup where course knowledge and ball-striking often separate contenders; round-3 positioning is influenced by two days of scoring, weather, and pairings.
Market prices reflect the collective view of who will be leading after round 3 and update as live scoring, tee times, weather, and news arrive. Use market prices as one real-time input alongside official leaderboards and player news rather than a sole determinant.
This market resolves to whichever listed golfer is recorded as the leader in the official Arnold Palmer Invitational scoring at the conclusion of round 3. The platform will use official tournament scoring and any stated market resolution notes to determine the winner.
Resolution depends on the market’s specific rules: some markets treat all co-leaders as winners and settle those outcomes, while others may have a different tiebreak rule. Consult the market description and resolution policy on the trading platform for the definitive procedure.
Each outcome corresponds to an individual player entered in the field (including alternates or rostered players at the time the market was created), so the outcome count equals the listed participants available to be leader candidates.
A player who withdraws before the official conclusion of round 3 cannot finish as the leader; how the market treats that outcome (removal, settlement as losing, or other adjustments) is governed by the platform’s rules—check the event market notes for the exact policy.
Primary drivers are live official scoring updates, tee time/ pairing announcements, weather forecasts and in-play conditions, injury or withdrawal news, and any tournament committee rulings that adjust scores.