| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Morikawa | 3% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $75K | Trade → |
| Daniel Berger | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $70K | Trade → |
| Ludvig Aberg | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $34K | Trade → |
| Scottie Scheffler | 10% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| Xander Schauffele | 1% | 0¢ | 20¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| Cameron Young | 5% | 0¢ | 13¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| Adam Scott | 5% | 0¢ | 8¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Akshay Bhatia | 1% | 0¢ | 20¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Min Woo Lee | 5% | 0¢ | 20¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Justin Rose | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Rickie Fowler | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 4% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Chris Gotterup | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Sahith Theegala | 2% | 0¢ | 20¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Ryan Fox | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Rory McIlroy | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Max Greyserman | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $585 | Trade → |
| Si Woo Kim | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $525 | Trade → |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $476 | Trade → |
| Tom Hoge | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $467 | Trade → |
| Patrick Cantlay | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $467 | Trade → |
| Ben Griffin | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $467 | Trade → |
| Bud Cauley | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $423 | Trade → |
| Kurt Kitayama | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $394 | Trade → |
| Harris English | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $350 | Trade → |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 2% | 0¢ | 20¢ | — | $235 | Trade → |
| Jason Day | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $187 | Trade → |
| Hao-Tong Li | 7% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $103 | Trade → |
| Justin Thomas | 20% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $99 | Trade → |
| Corey Conners | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $74 | Trade → |
| Maverick McNealy | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $50 | Trade → |
| Pierceson Coody | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $46 | Trade → |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 95% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $33 | Trade → |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sam Burns | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Andrew Putnam | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Michael Kim | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| J.T. Poston | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matthew McCarty | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Taylor Pendrith | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ryan Gerard | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Shane Lowry | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Brian Harman | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| J.J. Spaun | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Keegan Bradley | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chris Kirk | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Austin Smotherman | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sam Stevens | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lucas Glover | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Daniel Bennett | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sungjae Im | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Denny McCarthy | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sepp Straka | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nick Taylor | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Billy Horschel | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Keith Mitchell | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alex Noren | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Taylor Moore | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jake Knapp | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Harry Hall | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jordan Spieth | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Robert MacIntyre | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Patrick Rodgers | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Russell Henley | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Joel Dahmen | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Viktor Hovland | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Brian Campbell | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Andrew Novak | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets traders buy or sell contracts on which named player will be the leader at the end of Round 2 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. It matters because end-of-round leaderboard positions are a real-time signal of form and can move sharply as conditions and scores change.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is a long-established PGA Tour event held at Bay Hill in Orlando that traditionally attracts a strong field and heavy media attention. Bay Hill’s layout and typical March conditions (wind, firming greens) favor certain playing styles, and past editions have shown that round-to-round leaderboards can shift quickly.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders about who will be leading after the completion of Round 2 and will update as live scoring, weather, and news arrive; they are not guarantees but dynamic indicators that change with new information.
This market resolves based on the official Round 2 leaderboard as posted by the PGA Tour and used by KALSHI; resolution occurs after Round 2 is completed and the tournament’s official scores are finalized (including any official suspensions or resumption of play).
It indicates there are 72 distinct player-named contract outcomes in the market—each outcome corresponds to a particular player who could be the leader at the end of Round 2 as defined by the contract listing.
Resolution of ties depends on the contract’s official rules; in many event-specific markets multiple tied players may all be treated as winners or ties may be resolved according to the exchange’s stated procedures—check KALSHI’s market terms for the exact tie-handling policy.
Tee times influence exposure to changing conditions (morning vs afternoon wind or firmness), and being paired with an in-form competitor can affect strategy and scoring momentum; both factors can materially affect who tops the leaderboard by the end of Round 2.
Live hole-by-hole scoring updates, sudden weather changes or announced suspensions/delays, mid-round withdrawals or injury reports, and notable streaks (e.g., several birdies or bogeys in a row) are the most common catalysts for rapid price moves.